Crude Oil Prices Rise on Saudi Tensions

December WTI crude oil (CLZ26) is up +1.22 (+1.26%), and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) is up +0.0223 (+0.73%).

Crude oil prices are higher today due to tensions in Saudi Arabia, where the Houthi militia in the past two days has launched additional attacks against Saudi infrastructure targets like oil facilities, ports, and airports.  In addition, the US State Department Wednesday afternoon announced an evacuation of non-essential US embassy personnel and families from Saudi Arabia due to Houthi attacks. 

The Saudi evacuation sparked some market speculation that the US might be planning a new wave of attacks on Iran and/or the Houthis after the November 3 election.  Indeed, the New York Times reported today that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed military strikes against Iran after the US and Israeli elections, although the report said President Trump has not yet approved those plans.  The goal of a new military attack would be to deliver a knockout punch to Iran that would force Iranian leaders to capitulate to US demands, although that has so far been a fever dream of US planners.

Yet, oil continues to flow in the Middle East.  Oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz so far in October was 16.7 million bpd according to Kpler and 15.4 million bpd according to Vortexa, approaching pre-war levels of about 19 million bpd.  US Energy Secretary Wright said on Monday that Persian Gulf oil flows have recovered to about 80% of their pre-war level, though refined-product shipments remain constrained.

Higher Saudi crude output is bearish for crude prices.  Saudi Arabia said its Sep crude production rose by 2 million bpd (+40% m/m) to 8.732 million bpd, recovering from a 36-year low in August.  However, Saudi oil production continues to be threatened by Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and by the Houthi threats to oil shipments near the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait.

Recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure have curbed Russian crude production and exports. Ukraine attacked Russian fuel-producing plants 15 times in September and 22 times in August, targeting five of Russia’s ten largest oil-processing plants.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  Russian crude processing rates recovered slightly to 3.98 million bpd in September as damaged refineries struggle to come back online.

On the bearish side for crude, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on September 11 warned that high oil prices and restricted oil supply will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand this year since the Covid-19 pandemic.  Despite the projected demand drop, the IEA raised its estimate for this year’s global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd from last month’s 1.3 million bpd estimate due to the restricted supply caused by the US-Iran war. The IEA said the return of a global oil surplus will be delayed until 2027, later than its previous estimate of late 2026.

On October 4, OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged for November.  As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September. The group has now restored all 1.65 million bpd of the supply cutback it made in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  However, OPEC+ may struggle to deliver planned production increases amid Middle East shipping disruptions.  OPEC's Sep crude production rose by +1.12 million bpd to 20.71 million bpd. 

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -11% w/w to 85.45 million bbl in the week ended October 16.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of October 16 were -3.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.0% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending October 16 fell sharply by -3.00% w/w to 13.269 million bpd due to disruptions from Hurricane Isaias, down from a record high of 13.979 million bpd posted in the week ended October 2.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended October 16 fell by -3 to 459, falling back from a 16.75-month high of 462 rigs on October 9.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.