Wanlian Securities: The passenger occupancy rate of civil aviation remained high in the first three quarters, it is recommended to actively pay attention to the aviation sector

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that the total turnover of civil aviation continued to grow steadily in the first three quarters, and the passenger occupancy rate remained high. In September, air ticket prices were +6.5% year-on-year, and flight plans for the winter season declined, and it is expected that the price will continue to rise under volume control and price insurance measures. The further rise in aviation kerosene prices in October still suppressed the aviation sector. The aviation sector is under pressure in the short term, but the long-term supply and demand pattern improvement trend has not changed. Currently, sector valuations are at a historically low level. For example, the subsequent decline in oil prices and the core factors suppressing aviation stocks have eased. The sector has great resilience to repair, and active attention is recommended.

The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:

The overall performance of the industry is relatively stable

From January to September 2026, the total turnover of civil aviation reached about 129.830 billion tons and kilometers, up 6.40% year on year, the same as the previous value. Domestic routes and international routes increased 2.70% and 12.70% year on year respectively, all the same as the previous value. The total turnover of civil aviation in September was 6.5% YoY, +0.2pct month-on-month, with China +2.6% YoY, -2.4pct month-on-month, international routes +13.20% YoY, and +4.5pct month-on-month. Passenger traffic from January to September 2026 reached 593 million passengers, up 2.0% year on year, 0.1 pct higher than the January-August growth rate. Among them, 61.1948 million passengers were completed on international routes, up 4.70% year on year, the same as the previous value. Passenger traffic on domestic routes increased 1.70% year on year, up 0.1 pct from January to August.

The supply and demand of the six major airlines remained steady in the first three quarters

From the perspective of listed airline data, the six listed airlines' RPK and ASK changed +5.4% and +3.3% year-on-year, respectively, and remained flat and rose 0.2 pct from January-August, respectively. Their domestic routes changed +3.5% and +2.2% year over year, and international routes changed +11.0% and +6.3% year over year. The January-September RPK growth performance of 6 listed airlines: Chunqiu (15.1%) > Air China (8.2%) > China Eastern Airlines (5.4%) > China Southern Airlines (4.7%) > Hainan Airlines (-0.2%); ASK growth performance in January-September: Chunqiu (13.0%) > China Southern Airlines (4.0%) > Air China (3.2%) > China Eastern Airlines (3.2%) > Hainan Airlines (1.4%).

Passenger occupancy levels of various airlines declined somewhat month-on-month in September

In January-September, China's civil aviation passenger occupancy rate was 86.30%, an increase of 1.4 pct over the previous year, the same as in January-August. From the perspective of listed airline data, the overall passenger occupancy rate level of the six listed airlines in January-September was 86.22%, up 0.03 pct from January-August. Specifically, the passenger occupancy rates of the six airlines from January to September are: Chunqiu (93.00%) > Jixiang (87.46%) > China Southern Airlines (85.40%) > Air China (85.23%) > Hainan Airlines (84.89%); passenger occupancy levels and month-on-month changes in September: Chunqiu (93.03%, -1.76pct) > China Eastern Airlines (87.38%, -2.23pct) > Jixiang (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern Airlines (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern Airlines (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65%, -1.83pct) > China Southern (87.65% 5.85%, -2.16pct) > Air China (85.40% , -2.30pct) > HNA (84.96%, -2.59pct).

In September, air ticket prices were +6.5% year-on-year, and flight plans for the winter season declined. It is expected that the price will continue to rise under volume control and price insurance measures

According to flight manager data, the average domestic economy class fare for civil aviation reached 742.1 yuan (tax included) in September, up 6.5% from 2025 and 1.2% from 2019. As the winter season approaches, the average weekly scheduled flight volume for domestic aviation during the 2026 winter and spring season is about 119,600, down from the 2025 winter and spring season. Furthermore, recently, the Civil Aviation Administration issued the “Domestic Flight Review and Optimization Measures” to further enhance the scientific and refined level of domestic flight management, promote differentiated competition in the industry and efficient allocation and use of air transport resources, optimize the domestic route network structure, and promote the high-quality development of civil aviation.

The total number of aircraft introduced by the six listed airlines in September was a net increase of 2 aircraft

As of the end of September 2026, the number of aircraft operated by the six listed airlines was 3428.00, an increase of 1.3% over the end of the previous year, a net increase of 44 aircraft. There was a net increase of 2 aircraft in September. China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines increased 1 and 4 respectively, while Air China and Hainan Airlines had net withdrawals of 2 and 1 aircraft respectively.

Aviation kerosene prices rose further month-on-month in October

According to data from Longzhong News, China Aviation Kerosene (factory price (tax included)) was 8,946.00 yuan/ton on October 1, up 9.5% from September 1. Oil prices continued to rise in early October and have recently declined, but they are still relatively high, and short-term air transportation cost pressure is still present.

Risk factors: Economic recovery falls short of expectations, international route restoration falls short of expectations, large fluctuations in oil prices, large exchange rate fluctuations, aviation safety, etc.