Zheshang Securities: Policy disturbances will not change the long-term trend of going overseas, and the global layout of automobiles is progressing at an accelerated pace

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that from a long-term perspective, EU policy disruptions will force domestic car companies to speed up the construction of overseas localized production capacity to reduce policy risks, and the overall impact is quite manageable. At present, domestic NEV companies have taken an important position globally, and there is still plenty of long-term space to go overseas. The bank expects that by 2030, there will still be room for 60% growth compared to current exports, and short-term disturbances will not change the long-term direction.

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

The EU trade policy is frequently disrupted, and the overall long-term impact is manageable

Reviewing history, in November after the EU's BEV countervailing duty to China was officially implemented in October 2024, China's BEV exports to Europe fell 59.4% month-on-month, but then quickly recovered. In '25, the BEV export volume continued to increase by 7.2% year-on-year under the influence of export grabbing in the early stages, and quickly rebounded to 65.6% in January-July '26, indicating that tariffs mainly caused short-term delivery and model structure disturbances, and did not significantly weaken European terminal demand. Recently, there have been many export-related policies, including the reduction of tax rebates for new energy vehicles on April 1, '27, and the decline in exports of hybrid models to the EU due to trade negotiations between China and Europe. At the level of tax rebates, the bank believes that there will be a certain change in the export pace around April '27. In the long run, car companies can be transmitted downstream through favorable prices; furthermore, if trade negotiations between China and Europe are formally implemented, they will have a certain impact on the EU's hybrid exports in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, it will force domestic car companies to speed up overseas localized production capacity construction to reduce policy risks, and the overall impact is quite manageable.

Reviewing photovoltaics and power batteries to deduce vehicle changes

Since New Energy implemented the tax refund policy, although there have been factors such as export grabbing, order fluctuations, and price adjustments before and after the tax refund point, the final export performance, profitability, and stock price performance have diverged to a certain extent. The reason for this is that tax rebates are not the core variables affecting export profitability; it is also necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on factors such as industry trends, competitive patterns, supply and demand conditions. In addition, new energy manufacturers have actively laid out overseas production capacity to meet policy risks while complying with local customers, and can be used as a reference target for future vehicle development.

Local automobile manufacturing is on the right track, and short-term disturbances will not change the long-term direction

At present, domestic NEV companies have taken an important position globally, and there is still plenty of long-term space to go overseas. The bank believes that with the reduction of tax rebates on new energy, domestic companies can cushion with some smooth prices, and that even after the smooth price, the cost performance ratio and product performance advantages of domestic car companies are still outstanding. In the long run, many car companies have begun to go overseas to build local factories, forming multi-regional manufacturing networks in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe and Central Asia. Although capital expenses and fixed costs will increase in the short term; in the medium to long term, leading car companies with product matrices, financial strength, channel foundation, and supply chain integration capabilities are more likely to take the lead in crossing the break-even point and form cost, delivery, and policy entry barriers through local manufacturing. As overseas sales continue to rise, it is expected that Chinese car companies' localized factory construction will gradually shift from a defensive choice to deal with trade barriers to a necessary path to enhance global competitiveness. The bank takes the EU+UK market, which has been greatly affected by recent policies, as an example. It is expected that by 2030, there will still be room for 60% growth in export volume compared to the current one, and short-term disturbances will not change the long-term direction.

Key targets

BYD, Geely Automobile, Zero Sports Auto, SAIC Motor Group, Chery Automobile, Xiaopeng Group, Sinotruk H, Foton Motor, Yutong Bus, Chunfeng Power, and Longxin GM.

Risk warning: The EU's automobile trade policy with China was tightened beyond expectations; overseas NEV demand and penetration rates fell short of expectations; overseas factory construction progress, production capacity climbing and utilization rates fell short of expectations; price competition in overseas markets intensified; shipping prices, exchange rates and geopolitical risks.