Berenberg Lifts BP Price Target, Forecasts Amid 'Significant' Balance Sheet Progress

08:23 AM EDT, 10/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg raised its price target and forecasts for BP (BP.L), citing the oil and gas major's "significant" progress in bolstering its balance sheet as it continues to benefit from the robust environment for commodity prices. "In the Q3 trading statement, BP pointed to a strong quarter, driven by significantly stronger gas marketing and trading, combined with exceptional results within the Products division, driven by high realised refining margins, which will add around $2bn in EBIT relative to Q2. This should drive net debt to fall to $13.5bn-14.5bn (before leases), with total liabilities falling $9bn-10bn in the quarter, including the redemption of $1bn of hybrid securities," analysts said in a note published Wednesday. The company is set to release its full third-quarter results on Oct. 30. The research firm expects BP's stronger balance sheet to lead to a resumption in share buybacks in 2027, with a "moderate" initial buyback of $2 billion. At the company's December strategy update, analysts anticipate investment and growth plans for the upstream business and shareholder returns to be among key areas of focus for investors. With this in mind, Berenberg lifted the price target to 7.15 pounds sterling from 6.50 pounds, with an unchanged buy rating on the stock. The adjusted EPS estimate for 2026 was also increased by 15.4%, while the forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were respectively raised by 10.3% and 2%.