According to Fitch, Indonesia's medium-term economic growth forecast will be significantly lower than the 8% medium-term target set by the government. However, the rating agency raised Indonesia's trend GDP growth forecast from 4.7% to 4.9%, which is still below Indonesia's medium-term growth target. Fitch predicts Indonesia's GDP growth rate will be 5.2% in 2026, and growth momentum will slow in the second half of the year. Fitch expects that after spending is concentrated in the first half of the year, subsequent fiscal support will weaken; net exports will drag down growth. Fitch expects growth to stabilize at 4.9% in 2027 and 2028. According to Fitch, pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and external buffer indicators has intensified this year due to market concerns about policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and capital market governance. Fitch also mentioned that the rapid response measures introduced to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and the quick appointment of a new central bank governor relieved the pressure; the 2027 budget reflects a certain degree of policy continuity, reducing the risk of a sharp increase in government spending.

According to Fitch, Indonesia's medium-term economic growth forecast will be significantly lower than the 8% medium-term target set by the government. However, the rating agency raised Indonesia's trend GDP growth forecast from 4.7% to 4.9%, which is still below Indonesia's medium-term growth target. Fitch predicts Indonesia's GDP growth rate will be 5.2% in 2026, and growth momentum will slow in the second half of the year. Fitch expects that after spending is concentrated in the first half of the year, subsequent fiscal support will weaken; net exports will drag down growth. Fitch expects growth to stabilize at 4.9% in 2027 and 2028. According to Fitch, pressure on the Indonesian rupiah and external buffer indicators has intensified this year due to market concerns about policy credibility, fiscal discipline, and capital market governance. Fitch also mentioned that the rapid response measures introduced to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and the quick appointment of a new central bank governor relieved the pressure; the 2027 budget reflects a certain degree of policy continuity, reducing the risk of a sharp increase in government spending.