Passenger Link Branch: In the first three weeks of October, retail sales of 520,000 vehicles in the national passenger car market fell 13% year on year, down 2% month on month
The Zhitong Finance App learned that from October 1 to 18, the passenger car market retailed 520,000 vehicles from October 1 to 18, down 13% from the same period in October last year, down 2% from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales volume of 8.278,000 vehicles since this year was 8.278 million, down 13% year on year; passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 655,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 5% over the same period last month, an increase of 1% over the same period last month, and a total of 12.104 million vehicles have been sold since this year, up 9% year on year.
Passenger cars: From October 1 to 18, the national passenger car market retailed 789,000 units, down 26% from the same period last October, up 2% from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales volume since this year was 14.123 million units, down 22% year on year; from October 1 to 18, passenger car manufacturers sold 853,000 vehicles, down 20% from October last year, down 3% from the same period last month. Since this year, 20.589 million vehicles have been sold, down 6% year on year.
Penetration rate: From October 1 to 18, the retail penetration rate of the national passenger car new energy market was 65.9%; from October 1 to 18, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy for passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 76.8%.
Production: In the first to second week of October, the country produced 153,000 pure fuel light vehicles, down 43% from the same period in October last year, down 16% from the same period last month; in the first to second week of October, overall hybrid and plug-in hybrid production was 152,000 units, down 18% from the same period last year, up 2% from the same period last month.
Retail sales trend in the national passenger car market in October 2026
In the first week of October, the national passenger car market sold an average of 33,000 vehicles per day, down 25% from the same period in October last year, and down 10% from the same period last month.
In the second week of October, the national passenger car market sold an average of 58,000 vehicles per day, down 22% from the same period in October last year, and up 32% from the same period last month.
In the third week of October, the national passenger car market sold 47,000 vehicles per day, down 29% from the same period in October last year and 5% from the same period last month.
From October 1 to 18, the national passenger car market retailed 789,000 vehicles, down 26% from the same period in October last year, up 2% from the same period last month; since this year, 14.123 million units have been sold, down 22% year on year.
Since the Mid-Autumn Festival is in late September, during the traditional “golden nine silver ten” consumption season, the effective sales period in October was longer, and terminal passenger traffic continued to pick up slightly.
High international fuel prices continue, vehicle costs are high, and fuel vehicle consumption exceeds expectations and is sluggish. The increase in consumer first purchases has been temporarily blocked, and replacement stocks have become an important support for steady growth. The high-end is already in the Red Sea, and the opportunities in the car market are the popularity of the middle and low end. Due to the recent weak sales performance in the North and Midwest, the fuel vehicle base that rebounded in October was damaged, making it difficult to strengthen at the end of the year, which began in October.
The increase in the car market in October was driven by the National Day Auto Show, local subsidies, and peak season promotions for car companies, etc., and the recovery in the car market was relatively moderate. Recent leading events in industry public opinion may have led to new doubts and waits about users' confidence in the overall NEV products, which is not conducive to promoting transactions in October.
Wholesale sales trend of national passenger car manufacturers in October 2026
In the first week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 21,000 vehicles per day, down 32% from the same period last October and 44% from the same period last month.
In the second week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold an average of 60,000 vehicles per day, down 7% from the same period in October last year, and up 23% from the same period last month.
In the third week of October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 67,000 vehicles per day, down 22% from the same period in October last year, and up 11% from the same period last month.
From October 1 to 18, passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesaled 853,000 vehicles, down 20% from the same period last October and 3% from the same period last month; a total of 20.589 million units have been sold since this year, down 6% from the previous year.
In previous years, the “Golden Nine, Silver Ten” fuel vehicles were able to get the cake. Demand for fuel trucks under high fuel prices this year will be further compressed. Due to the continued sharp decline in fuel vehicle retail sales, fuel vehicle domestic demand production declined significantly in October. As a result, manufacturer sales were generally sluggish. Wholesale sales of fuel vehicle manufacturers fell 55% in the first three weeks. Most NEV brands currently lack popular models, but manufacturers also need a stable production pace. As a huge industrial chain system, it is impossible to simply schedule production according to orders; they also need to consider production and sales targets. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped dramatically, which is conducive to a decrease in prices on the battery side. Coupled with the adjustment of NEV export tax rebates, it is conducive to improving NEV production and sales.
The value added of the automobile industry increased by 6.7% in September 2026
The economy was generally running smoothly in the first three quarters of this year, and high-quality development achieved new results. The quality of development in China's consumer market continued to improve, new consumption formats and models were bursting with vitality. Under the impact of high international oil prices, the pressure on traditional automobile consumption was high.
From January to September 2026, fixed asset investment in the automotive industry fell 6.3% year on year, and is still higher than the average of all industries of -7.2%. From January to September 2026, the automobile industry's capacity utilization rate was 69%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2 percentage points. In the third quarter of 2026, the automobile industry's capacity utilization rate was 66.2%, down 7.1 percentage points from the previous year.
In September of this year, the value added of large-scale industries actually increased by 5.5% year-on-year. Among them, the value added of the automobile industry increased by 6.7% in September. Demand began to slump in September last year, but industrial value added was delayed by two months, and this year's pressure began to show. From January to September, the value added of large-scale industries increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and production in the automobile industry increased by 7.3%.
In September 2026, automobile production was 3.06 million units, down 6% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 1.87 million units, up 17% year on year, penetration rate 61%; fuel vehicle production was 1.19 million units, down 28% year on year. From January to September 2026, automobile production was 23.37 million units, down 4% year on year; new energy vehicle production was 12.46 million units, up 12% year on year, penetration rate 53%; fuel vehicle production was 10.92 million units, down 17% year on year.
From January to September of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 370.01 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% over the previous year. Among them, automobile consumption was 2,9442.7 billion yuan, down 15% year on year; retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles amounted to 34,574 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%. In September, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 4243.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% over the previous year. Among them, automobile consumption was 364.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3,8792 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%. Automobile consumption in 2026 presents a complex situation of “policy continuation, market fragmentation, and pressure on demand”. The trade-in policy continues to gain strength, but due to factors such as the accelerated contraction of fuel vehicles, price wars diluting consumer confidence, and the downturn in the low-end market, the total retail volume is still declining. The steady increase in consumption of petroleum products reflects the fact that residents' demand for travel is still rigid, and weak automobile consumption is more indicative of a marginal weakening of the will to spend on durable goods and disposable income.
Since the 2026 trade-in passenger car subsidies were far less strong than commercial vehicles, commercial vehicle subsidies contributed particularly well to the growth of NEV retail sales, and NEV passenger vehicles plummeted. Currently, there is a lot of pressure on entry-level passenger car consumption, and the high-end consumption of Chinese cars is too strong and the level of popularity is too low. It is hoped that in the future, there will be a strong long-term continuation policy, reducing personal taxes for car buyers, promoting new energy vehicles going to the countryside, setting standards for economical electric vehicles, optimizing C7 economy electric vehicle driver license applications, greater tax concessions for compliant pure electric vehicles with a battery life of less than 200 kilometers, and encouraging marriage and childbearing car purchases to promote economic growth.
Analysis of the national pickup truck market in September
Pickup truck production and sales: In September 2026, the pickup truck market sold 67,000 vehicles, up 42.5% year on year and 23% month on month, at the highest level in the past 5 years. Pickup sales in January-September were 522,000 units, up 19.2% year on year.
The pattern of the domestic market and export market is clearly different. Exports are more than twice the domestic sales volume, and the Chinese pickup truck has become the world's pickup truck. Great Wall Motor continues to maintain its leading position as a strong pickup truck, and its performance at home and abroad is relatively stable. Driven by continued year-on-year growth in exports, SAIC Chase, JAC, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Changan have performed well. In the domestic pickup truck retail market, Great Wall Motors, Jiangling Motors, Zhengzhou Nissan, Radar Motors, Jiangxi Isuzu, etc. performed well, and the domestic “one super pickup truck” pattern continues to be maintained.
Pickup truck exports: Overseas pickup trucks are in high demand in the domestic market, and going overseas is the only option for high growth of pickup truck companies. In September 2026, the country exported 47,000 pickup trucks, up 85% year on year, up 24% month on month; from January to September 2026, the country exported 313,000 vehicles, up 50% year on year, and the share of industry exports continued to be high. Pickup truck exports accounted for 45% of total pickup truck sales in 2024, pickup truck exports reached 50% in 2025, cumulative pickup truck exports reached 55% in 2026, and pickup truck exports reached 71% in September 2026. China's autonomous pickup truck exports increased quite well.
New energy pickup trucks: In 2024, the country sold 21,000 new energy pickups, up 170% year on year; in 2025, 73,000 new energy pickups, up 243%; in September 2026, 90,000 new energy pickups, up 98% year on year, up 4% month on month; in January-September 2026, 710,000 new energy pickups, up 33% year on year, forming a recent trend where new energy pickups are slightly weaker than the overall growth rate of fuel pickups.
China's commercial vehicle production and sales position in the world is low. With the development of electrification and passenger use, the overseas space in the pickup truck market will gradually increase. Among new energy pickup truck sales in September: BYD pickups sold 4,000 units overseas, Geely Radar electric pickups 2,068, Zhengzhou Nissan 1,936 units, Changan Zengcheng pickup truck 452 units, and other pickup trucks also had a certain scale of new energy vehicles. With the launch of the domestic new energy pickup truck market and the gradual cultivation of the market, it is expected that Chinese pickups will develop faster to meet the needs of domestic and foreign markets.
From January to September, China exported 8.63 million vehicles
In 2026, China's automobile exports will experience explosive growth. From January to September 2026, 8.63 million vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 52%, surpassing the total export scale of the whole year of 2025. Among them, 1.182 million vehicles were exported in September, a year-on-year growth rate of 55%, a sharp increase of 13% month-on-month, and the explosive growth was outstanding. From January to September 2026, total automobile exports reached US$149.8 billion, a sharp increase of 54% over the previous year, and the growth rate returned to a high level. Automobile exports in September were US$20.8 billion, up 62% year on year and up 13% month on month, breaking the weak pattern at the end of the 2023-2025 September quarter.
Total parts exports from January to September 2026 were US$79.6 billion, up 10% year on year, and the growth rate rebounded slightly from the same period in 2025. Auto parts exports in September were 9.77 billion US dollars in a single month, up 24% year on year and 7% month on month. After falling back in July-August, the September trend rebounded significantly.
The current national plan to reduce the export tax rebate for new energy vehicles is a return to neutrality after the industry matures. Starting April 2027, the value-added tax rebate rate will be reduced from 13% to 9%, leaving a buffer period of more than half a year. Automobile exports will exceed 200 billion US dollars this year, and exports of new energy vehicles will also exceed 110 billion US dollars. The scale of tax rebates is huge. The current export tax rebate reduction is a moderate reduction. The policy information direction is that it is not possible to rely on tax subsidies to fight a price war. China's NEVs have achieved full leadership in technology and industry chains. It is necessary to guide car companies to switch to brand building and localized operations to curb vicious low price competition in overseas markets. The tax rebate adjustment is not to suppress total NEV exports.