UBS: Lowering the target price for the Ningde Era (03750) to HK$730 and lowering the 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 11% to 14%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a research report stating that it lowered the target price for the Ningde Era (03750) from HK$820 to HK$730, maintained a “buy” rating, and lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 11% to 14%. The adjusted forecast range is 90 billion to 131 billion yuan.

Ningde Era's net profit for the third quarter was RMB 21.2 billion (same below), up 15% year on year, but fell 6% month-on-month, about 10% lower than buyers' expectations. Net profit for the first nine months of 2026 was $64.5 billion, reaching only 62% to 67% of the full-year market consensus and the bank's forecast, which may cause the market to lower the full-year consensus forecast. Excluding non-recurring items, the company's net profit for the third quarter was 18.9 billion yuan, up 15% year on year, but down 10% month on month.

During the period, the company sold more than 260 GWh of batteries, of which energy storage system (ESS) batteries accounted for about 25% and electric vehicle batteries accounted for about 75%. The bank pointed out that based on this calculation, the company's unit profit fell to 82 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a record low. It was mainly affected by factors such as quarterly product portfolio fluctuations, an increase in low value-added projects, the levy of consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries from September 1, and a reduction in the export value-added tax rebate rate from 9% to 6%. Despite short-term profit pressure, management remains confident in the outlook for the industry to grow 20% to 30% in 2027.