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Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) Following Strong Phase 3 EXPAND Data Is The Upside Still There

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) just reported topline Phase 3 EXPAND data for LIVMARLI in ultra-rare cholestatic liver diseases, with the trial meeting its primary itch reduction endpoint and all five prespecified secondary measures.

Despite the strong EXPAND headline, Mirum Pharmaceuticals has seen its 30 day share price return fall 10.44% and its 90 day share price return decline 29.74%. However, the year to date share price return of 5.34% and a five year total shareholder return above 4x suggest long term momentum has been strong.

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Mirum Pharmaceuticals has delivered a major clinical win at the same time its share price has cooled after a sharp multi year run. The key consideration now is whether the meaningful upside sits ahead or mostly in the rearview mirror as valuation comes into focus next.

Most Popular Narrative: 46% Undervalued

Mirum Pharmaceuticals closed at $82.24, while the most widely followed narrative anchors fair value at $153.07 per share. The debate now revolves around how much of that gap future execution can realistically close under a 7.67% discount rate.

The expanding addressable patient population for Mirum's therapies, especially with the increased recognition and diagnosis of later-onset PFIC through broader use of genetic testing and heightened disease awareness, is driving higher-than-expected patient volumes. This growing patient base is expected to directly contribute to sustained top-line revenue growth.

See why 12 investors see Mirum Pharmaceuticals as 46% undervalued.

The narrative implies investors are weighing a business currently reporting a net loss of $860.2 million on $618.1 million in revenue against an outlook that assumes $1.3 billion in sales, a 25.96% profit margin and a future P/E of 46.78x by around 2029. With the stock trading at a 46.3% discount to that $153.07 fair value estimate, your own view on patient identification, rare disease pricing durability and regulatory timelines becomes the key swing factor in how persuasive this story looks.

Result: Fair Value of $153.07 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, Mirum Pharmaceuticals faces two pressure points that could upset this undervalued story: heavier reliance on LIVMARLI and uncertainty around future regulatory and reimbursement decisions.

Find out about the key risks to this Mirum Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed sentiment runs through Mirum Pharmaceuticals, with both enthusiasm and concern on display, so consider acting promptly and pressure test the story against the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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If Mirum Pharmaceuticals has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Fresh opportunities can move quickly, and waiting on the sidelines can quietly cost you.