Ethereum Just Closed Out Its Best Quarter Since 2021. If History Is Any Guide, This Happens Next.
Key Points
Ethereum's price rose by quite a bit in the third quarter of this year.
In the coin's earlier days, that would suggest an even bigger bull run was in the works.
More recently, that pattern hasn't played out.
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) grew by an impressive 71% in the third quarter of 2026, its best three-month run since early 2021. That year, it ultimately rose by 376%, making many of its holders rich and leaving a lasting mark in crypto history.
Could the same kind of returns await investors in the coin today? Let's see what the historical data says.
Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The last few big quarters turned out to be flops
Since 2019, including this year's Q3, Ethereum has had nine quarters in which it gained 50% or more.
The first four of those, which occurred between mid-2019 and late 2020, were followed by even better returns. Two years after each instance, the coin was up significantly.
After late 2020, the pattern appears to flip to a far less positive one.
Two years after Q1 2021, 2023, and 2024, Ethereum was down 4.8%, flat, and down 42.6%, respectively. What's more, a 66.7% gain in Q3 2025 then gave way to a 35.3% decline within just 12 months, erasing most of that gain.
So the historical data doesn't really suggest that a strong Q3 makes Ethereum destined to go on a bull run for the years that follow, nor does it rule it out. If the pattern since late 2020 plays out again, and it might, the doldrums are more likely.
Should you buy this coin right now?
There's little reason to expect a repeat of 2021 here, though it could still happen. There's also little reason to expect the coin to return to its bear-market lows.
The bigger takeaway here is that a coin's price momentum tells little about its actual value, which determines its long-term performance. On the value front, a blockchain's paid utilization says a lot more about its future price, and in Ethereum's case, there's plenty of activity.
In September alone, users paid $15.9 million in network chain fees. In all probability, they were willing to pay those fees because they derive value from Ethereum's ecosystem, which is the central hub for both capital and innovation in the crypto sector.
As of Oct. 19, Ethereum hosted $144.3 billion in stablecoins, accounting for 47.7% of the total stablecoin value. Similarly, it led all other crypto networks in terms of its base of $16.9 billion in tradable tokenized real-world assets (stocks and other assets recorded on a blockchain). The mass of capital parked on the chain is an unambiguous sign that, on average, capital holders are more interested in keeping it within Ethereum's ecosystem than elsewhere in the crypto sector.
Thus, most crypto portfolios should have an allocation to Ethereum to get exposure to the growth and dynamism of its ecosystem.
If you don't own it yet, it's a good idea to buy some. If you already own some, as I do, it's probably worth buying a little more -- just keep your expectations in check, as there's no guarantee it'll perform as well over the next few years as it did over the last few months.
Alex Carchidi has positions in Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.