SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) reports third-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday, with its call at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Analysts expect earnings of 14 cents a share on $12.74 billion in revenue, up 63% from last quarter. SpaceX shares plunged nearly 14% after its previous earnings beat.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on what CEO Elon Musk and his team will say. AI terms crowd the top of the board, while a possible Tesla merger adds intrigue.

What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Say

“Starlink” leads at 99%, with “Starship” at 98%. SpaceX ended June with 12 million Starlink subscribers; analysts project another 1.5 million to 1.8 million additions this quarter.

“Grok” trades at 97%, “Cursor” at 96% and “Data Center” at 93%. SpaceX rents out computing power from its Colossus data centers, with new cloud deals adding $1.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, nearly two-thirds of its AI division’s total.

The company signed $14.1 billion in cloud-services contracts. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute investments pay back in under a year, although the AI division posted a $1.26 billion operating loss. SpaceX bought Cursor for $60 billion in August.

“Moon” sits at 84%. NASA targets a crewed lunar landing in 2028, giving SpaceX a nearer-term deadline than Musk’s Mars ambitions.

“Starmind” trades at 81%, “Colossus” at 78% and “Nvidia” at 74%. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is helping design orbital AI computers based on its Vera Rubin technology, while SpaceX’s terrestrial AI computing capacity reached 1.4 gigawatts in June.

What Kalshi Predicts SpaceX Will Skip

“Mars” trades at 38% and “Artemis,” NASA’s lunar program, at 36%. Traders expect the Moon to come up, but not necessarily by program name, and they’re skeptical Musk pivots to Mars.

“Tesla” trades at 59%, down 25 points, while “Combine / Combining” sits at just 24%.

RBC Capital Markets modeled a hypothetical takeover of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) at $480 a share, creating a $3.74 trillion company. RBC says it knows of no actual deal. Tesla reports Wednesday.

“Starshield” sits at just 15%, days after restrictions disrupted Ukrainian drone operations. Reuters reported the order came from inside the White House, while Musk said the U.S. government controls the military satellite system. Four U.S. senators demanded answers from SpaceX on Monday.

“T-Mobile” sits at just 8%. The carrier currently partners with SpaceX to provide satellite phone coverage, but Musk’s company has agreed to buy $8 billion in wireless spectrum previously owned by T-Mobile. The deal could help SpaceX build its own mobile network and compete directly with its partner.

Reading the Board

Musk has promised a $100 billion annualized revenue pace by December, counting on new contracts to rent out AI computing power. That would require nearly doubling monthly sales from the third-quarter average.

But spending worries investors. SpaceX poured $18.4 billion into capital projects last quarter, mostly AI data centers, and analysts expect nearly $19 billion more this quarter. Shares plunged after the last earnings beat as investors questioned whether the returns could justify the mounting costs.

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