Ark predicts Tesla (TSLA.US) will rise 1100% in 2031, or merge SpaceX (SPCX.US) within five years

According to Woofun AI, Ark Investment, led by Kathy Wood, released the latest research report, asserting that Tesla (TSLA.US) shares are expected to rise nearly 1100% by 2031, and predicts that the company will merge with SpaceX (SPCX.US) within five years.

The report released on Monday broke down the valuation logic in detail, setting a benchmark price target of $4,400 per share, a pessimistic scenario of $3,300 per share, and an optimistic scenario as high as $5,000 per share. Given that Tesla (TSLA.US)'s stock price was $367.29 during overnight trading on Monday, the benchmark scenario corresponds to an increase of about 1096%. Under the optimistic scenario, the increase was close to 1261%, and even in the pessimistic scenario, there was an increase of about 800%.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the driverless taxi business is expected to account for about 80% of Tesla's (TSLA.US) enterprise value and will generate 753 billion US dollars in revenue, driving an overall valuation of 16.4 trillion US dollars, of which driverless taxis account for 13.31 trillion US dollars.

Meanwhile, Optimus's robot-as-a-service business is expected to contribute $215 billion in revenue. In terms of autonomous driving progress, Tesla (TSLA.US) has accumulated 1 million driverless miles in about 7 months, which is four times faster than Waymo under Alphabet (GOOGL.US); its Cybercab's operating cost per mile is 40% lower than Waymo at the same usage rate. Under the benchmark scenario, Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to sell 10.2 million cars by 2031, including 8.1 million driverless taxis.

In terms of robot computing power and investment in chip manufacturing, the total humanoid robot market size is estimated at 26 trillion US dollars, and Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to deploy 1 million units externally by 2031. According to Ark Investments, Optimus can achieve human-level operating capability when it has about 4,000 megawatts or 4 gigawatts of computing power. Regarding Terafab's chip manufacturing plant, SpaceX (SPCX.US) is likely to bear a larger share of capital expenses, while Tesla (TSLA.US) will focus on setting up an initial R&D team. The associated costs are expected to be $3 billion, and its spending on artificial intelligence is expected to increase to nearly $225 billion by 2031.

Although the model sees Tesla (TSLA.US) as an independent corporate assessment, the merger of SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) is considered highly likely to occur within the next five years. The cash flow generated by Tesla (TSLA.US) will support SpaceX (SPCX.US) to build a rail data center, and SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s cutting-edge artificial intelligence model will also help Optimus promote it. Taken together, SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) are expected to jointly generate revenue of 3.8 trillion US dollars and profit before interest and tax of 2.7 trillion US dollars by 2031, of which SpaceX (SPCX.US) will contribute 62% of revenue and 69% of profit before interest and tax.

However, this grand narrative still faces significant risks. The slowdown in driverless taxi promotion is a major uncertainty facing the model. Furthermore, Musk's sudden departure, natural disasters, or the outbreak of an epidemic could all be major adverse factors to disrupt these predictions.