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MYR Group (MYRG) Could Be 31% Undervalued As Data Center Backlog Fuels Its Story

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

MYR Group (MYRG) continues to draw attention after a recent session that left its shares at $284.94. The move arrived alongside mixed short term returns and a stronger longer term track record.

Recent trading has pulled MYR Group back from its recent highs, with the share price falling 28.78% over the past 90 days. However, the year-to-date share price return is 25.68% and the 5 year total shareholder return is 157.28%, which points to longer term momentum alongside shorter term cooling.

Scan for other grid and infrastructure contractors with similar momentum by reviewing the hand picked 43 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks alongside your work on MYR Group.

That pullback leaves MYR Group sitting between a strong multi year run and a chunky recent drawdown. Does it make more sense to step in at this level, or to wait for a clearer valuation cushion?

Most Popular Narrative: 31% Undervalued

Against the last close at $284.94, the most followed MYR Group narrative anchors on a fair value of $412 and ties that gap to specific grid and data center project pipelines rather than broad electrification themes.

The growing mix of commercial and industrial backlog tied to data centers, clean energy and water treatment projects, supported by industry data showing North American data center starts are up nearly 100% year over year, creates a pipeline of complex work that can support revenue and earnings visibility.

See why 12 investors see MYR Group as 31% undervalued.

Based on that framework, the narrative uses an 8.83% discount rate and points to a fair value of $412 per share, which is above both the current $284.94 price and the analyst consensus target of $412 that was outlined when the thesis was reaffirmed in late 2026. The gap reflects assumptions about MYR Group converting its $4,006.1m of revenue and $165.3m of net income into stronger cash generation over time, while also lifting net margins toward the 4.9% level analysts project.

The same storyline leans heavily on earnings forecasts, with analysts expecting profit to grow around 17.8% per year and revenue to expand at roughly 12.8% per year. That profile is framed as faster earnings growth than the broader US market at 16.9% per year, even though forecast top line expansion is a touch slower than the 13.3% figure for the wider market, which places more weight on mix and margin than sheer volume.

Result: Fair Value of $412 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the MYR Group story can crack if record earnings fail to translate into consistent cash flow, or if the Valley Holdings debt load squeezes future margins.

Find out about the key risks to this MYR Group narrative.

Next Steps

Feels like MYR Group’s story has a strong bullish tilt, yet markets move fast and the only view that matters is your own. Pressure test the optimism and see the full breakdown of 4 key rewards

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