Time To Worry? Analysts Are Downgrading Their CSN Mineração S.A. (BVMF:CMIN3) Outlook
Market forces rained on the parade of CSN Mineração S.A. (BVMF:CMIN3) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the latest downgrade, the nine analysts covering CSN Mineração provided consensus estimates of R$14b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a substantial 22% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to nosedive 80% to R$0.087 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$15b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.19 in 2026. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
View our latest analysis for CSN Mineração
Analysts made no major changes to their price target of R$5.03, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on CSN Mineração's valuation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that CSN Mineração's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 40% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 0.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect CSN Mineração to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for CSN Mineração. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on CSN Mineração after the downgrade.
After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with CSN Mineração's business, like concerns around earnings quality. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 1 other flag we've identified.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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