SpaceX (SPCX.US) plans to acquire Tesla (TSLA.US) for $480 per share, with a total valuation of $3.74 trillion

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago

According to Woofun AI, RBC (RY.US) released a major takeover hypothesis to establish a framework for SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s potential acquisition of Tesla (TSLA.US). Although the bank emphasized that it was unaware that any actual takeover transactions were underway, this theoretical model sparked widespread discussion in the market about the revaluation of the two giants after merging.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that transaction details have evolved significantly. In a hypothetical all-stock exchange plan, SpaceX (SPCX.US) plans to buy Tesla (TSLA.US) for $480 per share, with a total consolidated valuation of $3.74 trillion. Compared to analyst Tom Narayan's forecast of $3.31 trillion and the 54% shareholding ratio of Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholders in July, the share ratio of Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholders in the latest model fell to 48%, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) shareholders held 52% of the shares.

This means that SpaceX (SPCX.US) investors receive approximately $422 billion in additional value, while Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholders hold shares worth about $1.8 trillion, which corresponds to a premium of about 30%. RBC (RY.US) believes that combining Tesla's (TSLA.US) robot manufacturing business with SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s AI infrastructure (including Terafab semiconductor planning) is expected to bring about synergy effects.

Market reactions and risks coexist. In September, when asked why the two companies are still operating independently, Musk responded that this was a “great question” and hinted that he might take some action in light of the increasingly close partnership. Future Fund partner Gary Blake warned that acquisition premiums paid in the form of SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares may be eroded by arbitrage, investors can use Tesla (TSLA.US)'s lower valuation multiples to assess the combined value, and arbitrage traders may eat up the premium before the transaction is completed. Barclays (BCS.US) analyst Dan Levy said the relevant announcement is likely to be issued before Tesla (TSLA.US)'s December 3 shareholders' meeting. According to Polymarket data, the probability of announcing official news before December 31 is 18%, and this probability will rise to 64% by the end of 2027, and the market's trading volume has already exceeded 1.4 million US dollars. Affected by this news, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares rose more than 3% to $367, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares rose more than 2% to $150.

Recently, key points are approaching. SpaceX (SPCX.US) will release earnings on Tuesday, October 20, while Tesla (TSLA.US) will announce earnings on Wednesday, October 21. The disclosure of these two financial reports will be a key window for verifying merger assumptions and market expectations, and investors should pay close attention to the impact of financial data on valuation models.