Looking for the Basement

Barchart · 2d ago

Throw this into the “What the Heck to Expect” category!

March corn—we're rolling to that contract now.

The crop report. Well, there's your stocks data, and we drop. Then, of course, we got that crop report, and we dropped through major support.

We tried to arrive at the 200-day moving average. We thought we'd find some support there and get a little bit more of a bounce for end users, but we're not seeing it.

China is not showing up at this time, so now we're falling through the 62% retracement level where we had suggested the possibility of a bounce off that major low.

It's falling through!

So, what's next?

Likely that August support range where we took off from. You'll probably get a little bit of a speed bump around 473–474.

But more significantly—and I'll crunch this up so you can see it on your phone—467.

That's a 78.6% retracement of that significant June low. We believe that June low will hold on the weekly charts as we look at the December contract, which carried that major low.

We think this is where something eventually rebuilds from.

Unfortunately, with a wide-open harvest week ahead, it may take until next week or even the end of the month before we see some kind of recovery bounce develop.

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