Cattle Markets Make New High for Recent Up Move
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The Cattle futures markets made new highs for the recent up move on Friday as cash expectations are turning positive. Traders seem to be in the bullish state of mind for cattle as we head further into the fall. Cash prices may have found its low for the time being as the packer wasn’t able to break the market by outwaiting the producer. Pushing trade to the end of the week didn’t work out for the packer as cash prices soared, reaching 227.00 up north. With the south not in report mode cash prices have been stronger with trades as high as 228.00 and few takers at that price. The south is looking to trade 230 for live cattle. This pushed traders into buying futures in anticipation of higher cash prices to continue. The cutout continues to trade in its 370.00 to 380.00 range, which could put the packer under pressure going forward if cash prices indeed move higher. Maybe that is why they increased the slaughter as they should be making money at these levels and since the writing is on the wall they might as well jump in while the water is still warm. In my opinion, the fundamentals are still bullish for cash prices as supplies are still tight. We are getting ever closer to the November election so, we may see less government intervention going forward which could allow fundamentals to take over the trade once again. The Cattle on Feed placement numbers have been bullish the past few months and the placement levels are expected to continue to remain tight going forward, in my opinion. This could pressure on the packer and force some aggressive actions in the market. We’ll see!... November Feeder Cattle made its low at 341.375 and its high at 343.525. Settlement was near unchanged at 341.90. If price can best resistance at the declining 100-DMA now at 342.25, it could challenge resistance at 344.675. Resistance then comes in at 350.20. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 337.575. Support then comes in at 335.975. December cattle settled above its declining 100-DMA now at 227.725 on the continuous chart. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at 230.425. Resistance then comes in at 232.275. A failure from settlement could see price test the declining 100-DMA and then support at 226.60. Support then comes in at 224.55.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 343.54 as of 10/16/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 1.50 to 373.35 and select jumped 2.57 to 354.30. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 19.05 and the load count was 124.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 102,000, which is above last week’s 98,000 and last year’s 93,883. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 21,000, which is above last week’s 5,000 and last year’s 7,874. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 553,000, which is above last week’s 535,000 and last year’s 566,065.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Compared to last week in Nebraska, live purchases have been 3.00 higher from 222.00-227.00, mostly 225.00, and dressed purchases have been 5.00 higher from 350.00-355.00, mostly 350.00. Compared to Thursday in the Western Cornbelt, live purchases have been 1.00-2.00 higher from mostly 222.00-224.00 and dressed purchases have been 5.00 lower ranging from 350.00-360.00, but mostly at 350.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 220.00 – 227.00 and from 345.00 – 360.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
Trade Strategy:
February 2027 Live Cattle Options Strategy
Sell the February 2027 Live Cattle 250/230 put spread at 17 cents.
- Premium collected: $6,800, less commissions and fees
- Maximum risk: $1,200, plus commissions and fees
- Margin requirement: $1,104
- Risk management: Consider limiting risk to 200 points ($800) plus commissions and fees
- Profit objective: Work a bid to buy back the spread at 7 cents
- Potential gain: Approximately $4,000, less commissions and fees
- Premium collected: $1,250.00, less commissions and fees(250 points) per spread
- Maximum risk: $3,750, plus commissions and fees per spread
Feeder Cattle Opportunity:
Sell the January 2027 Feeder Cattle 330/320 put spread for 700 points a $3,500.00 credit. Buy
the March Feeder Cattle 340 Call for 450 points a $2,250.00 debit.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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