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KeyCorp (KEY) Could Be 21% Undervalued After Avalanche Banking Deal

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Kroenke Sports & Entertainment renewed a three-year partnership with KeyCorp (KEY), giving KeyBank exclusive retail banking rights with the Colorado Avalanche and new branding throughout Ball Arena in Denver.

KeyCorp’s recent marketing push with the Avalanche comes at a time when the share price has eased. The 30-day share price return is down 3.94% and the 90-day share price return is down 14.28%, while the 1-year total shareholder return is 22.71% and the 3-year total shareholder return is about 2.3x. This suggests that long-term holders have seen notable gains even as near-term momentum has weakened.

Seize this chance to compare KeyCorp's marketing-driven story with a hand-picked 33 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with potential for a sentiment shift similar to renewed sports partnerships.

KeyCorp’s marketing presence in Denver is rising just as the share price has cooled in recent months. Is that slide pointing to business issues, or is it simply a swing in sentiment that creates a valuation gap worth unpacking next?

Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued

KeyCorp last closed at $19.99 against a narrative fair value estimate of $25.37, which frames the recent share price softness as a potential disconnect with the longer term earnings story built around margin and capital returns.

The anticipated shift from net interest income headwinds to tailwinds is now supported by over US$9b of low yielding fixed rate assets expected to reprice in the back half of 2026 and about US$30b through year end 2027, which management ties to an outlook for net interest margin to move from 2.89% toward at least 3.25% and potentially lift revenue and earnings.

See why 29 investors see KeyCorp as 21% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $25.37 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, higher nonperforming assets and investor hesitation around deposit costs and sector P/E multiples could quickly challenge the current KeyCorp repricing storyline.

Find out about the key risks to this KeyCorp narrative.

Next Steps

Sentiment around KeyCorp is mixed, which is exactly when taking a closer look at the underlying data can matter most. Move quickly to review what is driving optimism and pressure today, and then weigh those signals against the 5 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.