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Is Verbio (XTRA:VBK) Undervalued Following The Jefferies Upgrade?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Verbio (XTRA:VBK) is back in focus after Jefferies upgraded the stock on expectations for stronger biodiesel margins, higher earnings forecasts, and a shift from heavy investment toward extracting more value from existing assets.

The Jefferies upgrade comes after a sharp 1-day share price return of 16.56%, which follows a 7-day share price gain of 10.93%. However, this occurs after a 30-day share price decline of 4.42% and a 90-day share price drop of 6.98%, so short term momentum in Verbio is improving while longer term returns remain mixed.

Spot 618 high quality undiscovered gems that, like Verbio, are trying to turn regulatory shifts and new capacity into potential earnings momentum.

Verbio now trades at a steep discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after this sharp rebound. Is that a genuine mispricing, or is the market applying justified caution to a volatile earnings story?

Most Popular Narrative: 32% Undervalued

Verbio last closed at €29.84 while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of €44. This frames the Jefferies upgrade against a much larger perceived gap between price and fundamentals.

The anticipated tightening of biofuel supply as higher-cost competitors reduce output, combined with gradual policy improvements, such as stricter fraud controls and quota increases, across Europe is likely to support a material recovery in greenhouse gas (GHG) quota prices. This would directly impact Verbio’s revenue and EBITDA, as each €1 rise in quota price increases annual EBITDA by €1 million.

See why 10 investors see Verbio as 32% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of €44 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, two pressure points shadow that 32% undervaluation story: reliance on supportive regulation for Verbio and ongoing margin strain from volatile feedstock costs.

Find out about the key risks to this Verbio narrative.

Another View: Verbio Looks Expensive On Earnings Ratios

Flip the lens and Verbio looks very different. On a P/E of 29.9x versus a fair ratio of 24.2x, the share trades at a rich premium. That is also well above peers on 11x and the wider European Oil and Gas group on 14x. Is the market already baking in a lot of the good news?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

XTRA:VBK P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026
XTRA:VBK P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026

Next Steps

Mixed messages on Verbio so far. For a clearer view, look past the headlines and consider both sides of the argument with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Verbio?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.