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Is Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) Cheap On Its Uniper LNG Supply Deal?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) has moved into the LNG export arena through a supply agreement with German utility Uniper, tying part of its Western Canadian gas output to overseas demand for lower carbon energy.

Recent trading has been supportive, with a 30-day share price return of 9.26% and a year-to-date share price return of 7.79% at a latest share price of CA$66.17. The 1-year total shareholder return of 16.03% and 5-year total shareholder return of 115.06% point to momentum that has built over time around Tourmaline Oil’s gas exposure and newer LNG-linked moves like the Uniper deal.

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Tourmaline Oil now ties Western Canadian gas to global LNG demand, while the share price already reflects years of strong returns. Does that setup still leave enough upside in the current valuation for new buyers?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued

Tourmaline Oil’s most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about CA$69.98, slightly above the latest CA$66.17 close. This puts the LNG-linked growth story in focus as a key factor that may be driving that gap.

The ramp-up of LNG Canada and expanding North American export infrastructure are set to relieve local bottlenecks, improve price realizations, and support higher sales volumes for Tourmaline over the next several years, positively impacting net margins and earnings.

See why 105 investors see Tourmaline Oil as 5% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of CA$69.98 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the Tourmaline Oil story is vulnerable if Western Canadian gas prices stay weak for longer, or if LNG related infrastructure and export projects face fresh delays.

Find out about the key risks to this Tourmaline Oil narrative.

Another View: Tourmaline Oil Looks Expensive On Earnings

There is a very different message coming from simple earnings multiples. Tourmaline Oil trades on a P/E of 68.1x, while the Canadian Oil and Gas industry averages 20.9x and direct peers sit around 24.9x. The fair ratio sits at 23.5x, which implies a lot of optimism is already priced in. If sentiment cools, how much room is there for the valuation to compress without any change in the business outlook?

See what the numbers say about this price in our valuation breakdown, then decide which lens you trust more: the cash flow view or the earnings multiple view when you weigh Tourmaline Oil against other options.See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:TOU P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026
TSX:TOU P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026

Next Steps

Mixed signals around Tourmaline Oil often mean the strongest conclusions come from your own homework. Stress test the LNG story, compare the valuation tools used here, then walk through the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.