Cleveland-Cliffs Must Prove the Profit Comeback Isn't Just Arithmetic From Last Quarter's Loss
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Cleveland-Cliffs typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 captures the first reaction session and Day +1 reflects follow-through trading.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | +$1.51 (+15.98%) | $0.87 (9.15%) | +$0.97 (+8.85%) | $1.03 (9.35%) |
| 2026-04-20 | -$0.21 (-2.11%) | $1.08 (10.87%) | -$0.60 (-6.17%) | $0.72 (7.40%) |
| 2026-02-09 | -$2.42 (-16.43%) | $2.31 (15.68%) | -$0.04 (-0.32%) | $0.80 (6.50%) |
| 2025-10-20 | +$2.86 (+21.47%) | $1.65 (12.39%) | -$2.79 (-17.24%) | $2.32 (14.34%) |
| 2025-07-21 | +$1.18 (+12.45%) | $1.05 (11.08%) | +$0.66 (+6.19%) | $0.78 (7.32%) |
| 2025-05-07 | -$0.12 (-1.39%) | $0.38 (4.41%) | -$1.34 (-15.78%) | $0.95 (11.19%) |
| 2025-02-24 | -$0.20 (-1.76%) | $0.32 (2.82%) | -$0.36 (-3.23%) | $1.16 (10.38%) |
| 2024-11-04 | -$0.16 (-1.21%) | $0.25 (1.88%) | -$1.50 (-11.44%) | $0.89 (6.79%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 9.10% | 8.54% | 8.65% | 9.16% |
Cleveland-Cliffs exhibits significant volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 9.10% and Day +1 move of 8.65%—both well below the current options-implied move. The direction has been highly unpredictable: the most recent report (July 2026) saw a 15.98% surge on Day 0 followed by an 8.85% gain on Day +1, while the October 2025 report delivered a 21.47% spike on Day 0 only to reverse with a 17.24% decline on Day +1.
The intraday ranges are equally dramatic, averaging 8.54% on Day 0 and 9.16% on Day +1, reflecting intense two-way action as traders digest results and management commentary. Recent reports have skewed toward initial strength followed by either continuation (July 2026) or sharp reversals (October 2025, May 2025), suggesting the market struggles to price in the full implications of results immediately. Investors should prepare for substantial volatility in both directions, with the potential for multi-day swings as the market reassesses the profitability trajectory and pricing outlook.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/23/26 (DTE 7) |
| Expected Move | $1.30 (10.80%) |
| Expected Range | $10.74 to $13.34 |
| Implied Volatility | 110.52% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 10.80% through the October 23 expiration, implying a range of $10.74 to $13.34. This exceeds both the average Day 0 move of 9.10% and Day +1 move of 8.65%, suggesting options traders are anticipating above-average volatility for this particular release—likely reflecting the high stakes around the return-to-profitability question and uncertain demand outlook.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street maintains a cautious stance on Cleveland-Cliffs heading into the third-quarter report, with a consensus Hold rating (average recommendation of 3.29) across 14 analysts. The breakdown shows 3 Strong Buys, 10 Holds, and 1 Strong Sell, reflecting a divided Street with most analysts taking a wait-and-see approach. The mean price target of $13.09 implies modest 8.0% upside from the current $12.12 price, with estimates ranging from a low of $10.00 to a high of $17.48—a wide spread that underscores the uncertainty around the company's earnings trajectory.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with one analyst upgrading from Hold to Strong Buy while the overall rating composition shifted more bullish. This improvement aligns with the 7.45% increase in EPS estimates over the past 60 days, suggesting growing confidence that Cleveland-Cliffs can deliver on its profitability inflection. The recent Wells Fargo upgrade to overweight, citing favorable pricing dynamics and contract resets, appears to be driving some of this improved sentiment.
However, the predominance of Hold ratings and relatively modest price target upside indicate most analysts remain cautious about declaring victory. With the stock already up 31% over the past three months, the Street appears to be pricing in much of the near-term recovery potential, leaving limited room for error if the company fails to deliver on the profitability turnaround or if management commentary on demand trends disappoints.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Cleveland-Cliffs enters the earnings release with strong technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion registers a 96% Buy signal—unchanged from last week but significantly improved from the 72% Buy reading a month ago. This sustained strength reflects the stock's 31% rally over the past three months and suggests technical buyers remain in control heading into the report.
The stock is trading at $12.12, positioned above its 20-day ($12.12), 50-day ($12.01), 100-day ($11.74), and 200-day ($11.33) moving averages, but below its shorter-term 5-day ($12.52) and 10-day ($12.43) averages. This configuration suggests the stock has pulled back modestly from recent highs but maintains support from longer-term trend lines—a constructive setup that provides both upside room to recent peaks and downside support from established moving averages.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (75% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates near-term momentum remains positive despite the recent pullback from highs
- Medium-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish reading reflects powerful intermediate-term trend strength as the stock breaks above key resistance levels
- Long-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish signal confirms the broader uptrend is intact, with the stock well above its 200-day moving average
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized as Soft and Weakening, suggesting that while the directional bias remains positive, momentum is beginning to fade and the rally may be losing steam.
The technical setup presents a mixed picture for earnings: the stock has strong support from rising moving averages and maintains bullish signals across all timeframes, but the recent pullback from short-term highs and weakening momentum characteristics suggest some profit-taking ahead of the release. The 20-day moving average at $12.12 now serves as critical support—a break below could trigger further unwinding of the recent rally, while a strong earnings beat could propel the stock back toward the 5-day average at $12.52 and potentially test the 52-week range. The elevated options-implied move of 10.80% suggests traders are positioned for significant volatility in either direction.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $12.52 | 50-Day MA | $12.01 |
| 10-Day MA | $12.43 | 100-Day MA | $11.74 |
| 20-Day MA | $12.12 | 200-Day MA | $11.33 |
Key technical levels to watch include the 20-day moving average at $12.12, which now serves as immediate support, and the 5-day average at $12.52, which represents the first upside target if results exceed expectations. The stock's position above all major long-term moving averages provides a cushion for disappointment, but the weakening momentum characteristics and recent pullback from highs suggest the technical setup is more cautionary than supportive. Traders appear to be taking profits ahead of the release rather than adding aggressively, leaving the stock vulnerable to a sharper pullback if the profitability turnaround fails to materialize or if management commentary on demand trends disappoints.