Damo: Robotaxi contributes to Tesla (TSLA.US) target price of $120/share, Roadster highlights potential for technology collaboration with SpaceX

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley said in a research report released on October 16 that the Tesla (TSLA.US) next-generation Roadster sports car showed impressive engineering and technical strength. The rocket version only needed less than 0.59 seconds to accelerate from standstill to 60 miles per hour (about 96.6 kilometers), had a maximum speed of more than 230 miles (about 370 kilometers), and was even able to take off for a short time using a propulsion system developed by SpaceX. Damo believes that although the Roadster's contribution to Tesla's sales volume and earnings per share may be minimal in the short term, this model fully demonstrates Tesla's technological innovation capabilities and its potential for technical collaboration with SpaceX.

According to the research report, the new Roadster is equipped with a series of technologies that break through traditional car designs, including a fan adsorption system that can generate strong downward pressure, UV and low temperature protection technology, an electrostatic dissipation system, and a cold gas propeller developed by SpaceX. Among them, the downward pressure generated by the fan adsorption system is theoretically sufficient to maintain adhesion when the vehicle is inverted, and the cold gas propeller can not only provide forward and upward thrust, but also assist the vehicle to rotate laterally, so that the Roadster has a certain ability to vacate.

Tesla plans to start production of the new Roadster in 2028.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the practical value of sports cars that can take off in real road environments is still limited, but the significance of the Roadster is not about short-term sales, but rather about showing Tesla's ability to break through the boundaries of physics, engineering, and innovation. The bank believes that the Roadster is more like a flagship product showing Tesla's engineering strength. Its commercial success remains to be seen, but the technological integration between Tesla and SpaceX is already very obvious.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is more positive about Tesla's upcoming third-quarter results, mainly because the implementation of the Robotaxi business and core automotive business is improving, providing stronger support for the company's long-term growth prospects.

In terms of the autonomous taxi business, Tesla recently accelerated the expansion of the Cybercab fleet in Austin, Texas, USA. According to the research report, in just 30 days, the relevant fleet size increased eight times, reaching more than 300 vehicles, and the cumulative unsupervised driving mileage exceeded 1 million miles (about 1.61 million kilometers).

Morgan Stanley believes this development marks an important step towards Tesla's commercialization of Robotaxi operations on a large scale. As the fleet size expands and actual operating mileage increases, the market will be able to more clearly evaluate the commercial application capabilities of Tesla's autonomous driving technology.

The core automotive business is also showing signs of improvement. Damo pointed out that Tesla's vehicle deliveries have exceeded expectations for two consecutive quarters, driven by a combination of rising gasoline prices and increased adoption of fully autonomous driving (FSD) functions.

However, the bank also warned that Tesla still faces the challenges of high capital expenditure, short-term cash consumption, and high valuations. These factors may limit its stock price to outperform the market significantly in the short term.

Despite this, Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's actual implementation progress in the Robotaxi and automobile business is gradually keeping up with some of the long-term development goals previously proposed, making its investment prospects more attractive before the third quarter earnings report.

In terms of valuation, Morgan Stanley maintains Tesla's “hold” rating, with a target price of $400. Based on the closing price of $362.44 on October 15, this price target represents a potential upside of around 10.4%. Notably, Damo's valuation of Tesla is no longer limited to traditional automobile manufacturing businesses, but covers various fields such as autonomous driving networks, mobility services, energy, and humanoid robots.

Of the target price of $400, the core automotive business contributed $44 per share, the network service business contributed $145, the autonomous driving travel service business contributed $120, the energy business contributed $35, and the humanoid robot business contributed $56 per share. Among them, network services are the business sector that contributes the most to valuation. Damo's long-term forecast assumes that by 2040, the user adoption rate of Tesla's related network services will reach 80%, and the average monthly revenue per user will be $240.

For the autonomous travel service business, the bank's valuation model assumes that by 2040, Tesla's mobility network will have about 5 million cars, with an average revenue of about $1.33 per mile.

In terms of the humanoid robot business, Damo gave a valuation of 56 US dollars per share and considered a 50% probability discount in the calculation, reflecting that although the business has long-term growth potential, there is still great uncertainty about commercialization prospects.

In terms of earnings forecasts, the consistent market forecast presented by Morgan Stanley shows that Tesla's earnings per share for 2026, 2027 and 2028 will be $1.73, $2.00, and $2.56, respectively.

Morgan Stanley emphasized that the upward catalysts for Tesla's future stock price include a further increase in FSD adoption, progress in unsupervised autonomous driving, expansion of the Robotaxi business scale of operations, and breakthroughs in new products such as Roadster and Optimus humanoid robots.

At the same time, competitive pressure brought about by traditional car manufacturers, Chinese rivals, and large technology companies, execution risks in the Robotaxi, FSD, and humanoid robot businesses, and regulatory, valuation, and potential equity dilution issues are still the main risks investors need to pay attention to.