Hong Kong's fourth quarter business outlook survey: the proportion of the best players is expected to rise to 14%, and business prospects have improved markedly

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on October 16, the Hong Kong Government Statistics Department published the results of the quarterly statistical survey on the business outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. According to the survey, the proportion of respondents (14%) who expected the business situation in the fourth quarter of 2026 was better than that of the previous quarter (9%) was higher than that expected.

Compared with the results of the 2026 third quarter statistical survey, the proportion of respondents who expected the business situation in the fourth quarter of 2026 was better than the previous quarter was 14%, which is higher than the corresponding proportion (10%) in the third quarter of 2026. On the other hand, the proportion of respondents who expected business conditions to be worse than the previous quarter fell from 14% in the third quarter of 2026 to 9% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

According to industry analysis, in most of the covered industries, respondents generally expected the business conditions in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be better or remain largely unchanged compared to the third quarter of 2026. In particular, in the lodging and food service industry and the finance and insurance industry, many respondents expected their business conditions in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be better than the third quarter of 2026. On the other hand, in the transportation, warehousing, and courier services industry, there were more respondents who expected their business conditions to be poor than expected.

The survey period for this round of statistical surveys is from September 1, 2026 to October 6, 2026.

Business/output

In most of the industries covered, respondents generally expected business/output in the fourth quarter of 2026 to rise or remain largely unchanged compared to the third quarter of 2026. In particular, in the lodging and food service industry, manufacturing industry, finance and insurance industry, and retail, many respondents expected their business/production/sales volume to increase in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2026.

employment

In many of the industries covered, respondents generally expected the number of employees in the fourth quarter of 2026 to remain roughly the same as in the third quarter of 2026. However, in the accommodation and food service industry and real estate industry, many respondents expected the number of employees in the fourth quarter of 2026 to increase compared to the third quarter of 2026. On the other hand, in the information and communications industry and the construction industry, there were more respondents who expected a decline in the number of workers than expected to increase.

Product Price/Service Charges

In most of the industries covered, respondents generally expected product prices/service charges in the fourth quarter of 2026 to rise or remain largely unchanged compared to the third quarter of 2026. In particular, in the accommodation and food service industry and transportation, warehousing and courier services, many respondents expected the price of the food/service they provided in the fourth quarter of 2026 to increase compared to the third quarter of 2026. However, in the construction industry, many respondents expect their bid prices to drop in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2026.

A Hong Kong government spokesman said that the overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises increased markedly in the fourth quarter of 2026. The expected business situation compared to the number of companies in the previous quarter recorded a positive net difference, the first time in ten quarters. The outlook for most industries has improved. Overall recruitment intentions have also improved slightly.