New MSCI regulations are implemented, and passive sales of US$2.8 billion are putting pressure on the ceiling

According to Woofun AI, MSCI, the world's authoritative index compiling agency, officially finalized new index qualification regulations for “non-operating companies” on October 15, US time. This structural adjustment directly points to Bitcoin holding listed companies represented by Strategy (MSTR.US). The implementation of the new regulations marks a fundamental shift in MSCI's evaluation logic for digital asset treasury companies. Instead of simply relying on a one-size-fits-all limit on the ratio of digital assets to total assets, it is shifting to a more complex comprehensive consideration of operating assets and financial health. For Strategy (MSTR.US), this rule change is the biggest source of uncertainty that remains within the MSCI index system. If it fails to pass the new financial ratio test, the risk of being removed from the index will increase significantly, which in turn may trigger a chain market reaction.

The core of the new regulations is the establishment of a more detailed screening mechanism to replace the previously temporary simple restrictions on companies that account for more than 50% of digital assets. The new mechanism will officially take effect during the index review cycle in November, and MSCI plans to publish the final list of companies likely to be affected on November 11.

From a structural point of view, the new rules first examine the company's working assets and then introduce five key financial ratios for an in-depth evaluation. According to a consultation document issued by MSCI in August, if a company fails the core screening for operating assets and is marked as not meeting the criteria in four of the five financial ratios, it will be judged as not eligible for the index.

It is worth noting that the new regulations set up a buffer mechanism at the time of inclusion and exclusion to reduce sharp fluctuations in index components. Companies that have not yet been included in the index cannot be added to the index as long as they fail any one of the last two annual reporting periods; while companies that are already in the index must not pass the test for two consecutive periods before they face the risk of exclusion.

In addition, MSCI may also use the latest interim financial report as the basis for the evaluation, which means that the timeliness and continuity of financial data will be a key variable in determining the fate of the company.

Before the rules were officially implemented, MSCI conducted simulation tests based on data from May 2026, and the results revealed the potential impact range. In this simulation, Strategy (MSTR.US), Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake were listed as targets likely to face exclusion. The Block further indicated that Ethereum treasury company SharpLink (SBET.US) may also be affected by the new regulations.

Although the final list still awaits MSCI's official announcement on November 11, the market has begun to absorb this potential risk early. According to Woofun AI, J.P. Morgan estimates that if Strategy (MSTR.US) is actually excluded from the MSCI index, it may cause passive selling pressure of about 2.8 billion US dollars.

The huge volume of this amount is enough to have a significant impact on the market liquidity of Bitcoin and related digital assets. Especially in the current context where market sentiment is already sensitive, any signal of passive holdings reduction from large index funds may be amplified, thereby increasing price volatility.

Faced with the potential threat posed by the new regulations, Strategy (MSTR.US) senior management took a tough counterattack stance in an attempt to pressure MSCI from a reputational level. Strategy (MSTR.US) Executive Chairman Saylor and CEO Phong Le previously publicly criticized MSCI's practices as “discriminatory” against digital asset treasury companies. In a letter to MSCI, Strategy (MSTR.US) made it clear that while the proposal would have no substantial impact on the company's actual business operations, it would “seriously damage MSCI's reputation as a reliable and neutral index supplier.” Saylor and Phong Le's remarks are aimed at elevating the rules dispute to the height of industry fairness and indexing neutrality, in an attempt to push MSCI to re-examine its screening criteria through public pressure.

However, MSCI adheres to its principle of prioritizing financial health. It believes that the financial structure of non-operating companies is fundamentally different from traditional enterprises, and that it is necessary to ensure the quality and stability of index constituent stocks through more stringent ratio tests. This conceptual conflict made the game between the two sides more intense before the rules were implemented, and also added more uncertainty to subsequent market trends.

From a broader perspective, the finalization of MSCI's new regulations not only targets individual events of several digital asset treasury companies, but is also an important calibration of the traditional financial system's inclusion standards for crypto assets. Cryptocurrency investment is highly risky, its price may fluctuate drastically, and investors may lose all of their principal. This risk warning is particularly heavy in the current market environment. For digital asset treasury companies such as Metaplanet and Strategy (MSTR.US), whether they can pass the MSCI financial ratio test is not only about their position in the index, but also about their position in global passive fund allocation. As the publication date of the final list on November 11 approaches, market participants will need to pay close attention to the financial disclosures of relevant companies and the extent to which MSCI has adopted the interim earnings report.

The development of this event may redefine the survival rules of digital asset treasury companies in traditional financial indices. Its impact is profound and complex.