Will Tesla's Roadster Fly Tonight? Prediction Markets Say It's Likely

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk says Thursday’s Roadster unveiling could be the “greatest product demo of all time.” Prediction market traders increasingly believe he’ll make the long-delayed sports car fly.

On Polymarket, the odds of the Roadster becoming airborne for at least one second have climbed 18 percentage points to 68% since trading began Wednesday afternoon, with roughly $36,000 wagered.

But traders are far less confident about its speed. A separate market gives Tesla just a 20% chance of demonstrating zero-to-60 mph acceleration in under one second.

The unveiling begins at 8:55 p.m. ET at a SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) testing facility in McGregor, Texas.

Can Musk Really Make a Car Fly?

The Information reported in August that Tesla had been developing a modified Roadster using SpaceX cold-gas thrusters, potentially allowing the vehicle to lift itself off the ground.

The planned demonstration would reportedly involve a remotely operated prototype, with spectators kept at a safe distance. The thruster-equipped version is not expected to be street-legal.

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable,” Musk told Joe Rogan during an October 2025 interview.

But there’s a catch to the flying bet.

Polymarket requires only that the entire vehicle leave the ground under its own power for one continuous second. Even a powered jump would qualify, without sustained hovering or controlled flight.

Tesla has not confirmed it will attempt the maneuver tonight.

Nine Years of Extraordinary Promises

Tesla first unveiled the second-generation Roadster in 2017, promising deliveries in 2020 and zero-to-60 mph acceleration in 1.9 seconds.

Competitors have since overtaken that target. Rimac’s Nevera R achieved 1.66 seconds, while Musk raised the stakes in 2024, promising less than one second and calling acceleration “the least interesting part” of the car.

Even Rimac founder Mate Rimac said Musk’s claim was technically possible, but warned that the thrusters could exhaust their compressed gas in just two or three seconds, leaving the car carrying heavy tanks and equipment.

Polymarket’s acceleration contract requires a live, timed run from a standing start. Simply announcing that the car can achieve that speed would not qualify.

Not everyone is impressed by the prospect of a flying Roadster.

“Why would I need a car to hover?” investor Ross Gerber asked Benzinga during a recent interview. “I look at it as a gimmick.”

Gerber suggested Tesla might manufacture only a few hundred Roadsters, questioning its commercial significance.

Tesla shares fell 2.28% to $358.80 in Thursday morning trading amid a broader technology selloff, with the Nasdaq-100-tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) down 1.3%.

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