Cui Dongshu: In 2026, China's automobile exports ushered in explosive growth in January-September, automobile exports surged 52% year-on-year to 8.63 million units

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that in 2026, China's automobile exports will usher in explosive growth. Automobile exports from January to September 2026 were 8.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 52%, surpassing the total export scale of the whole year of 2025. Among them, 1.182 million units were exported in September, a year-on-year growth rate of 55%, a sharp increase of 13% month-on-month, and the explosive growth was outstanding. From January to September 2026, total automobile exports reached US$149.8 billion, a sharp increase of 54% over the previous year, and the growth rate returned to a high level. Automobile exports in September were US$20.8 billion, up 62% year on year and up 13% month-on-month, breaking the weak pattern at the end of the 2023-2025 September quarter.

Total parts exports from January to September 2026 were US$79.6 billion, up 10% year on year, and the growth rate rebounded slightly from the same period in 2025. Auto parts exports in September were 9.77 billion US dollars in a single month, up 24% year on year and 7% month on month. After falling back in July-August, the September trend rebounded significantly.

The current national plan to reduce the export tax rebate for new energy vehicles is a return to neutrality after the industry matures. Starting April 2027, the value-added tax rebate rate will be reduced from 13% to 9%, leaving a buffer period of more than half a year. Automobile exports will exceed 200 billion US dollars this year, and exports of new energy vehicles will also exceed 110 billion US dollars. The scale of tax rebates is huge. The current export tax rebate reduction is a moderate reduction. The policy information direction is that it is not possible to rely on tax subsidies to fight a price war. China's NEVs have achieved full leadership in technology and industry chains. It is necessary to guide car companies to switch to brand building and localized operations to curb vicious low price competition in overseas markets. The tax rebate adjustment is not to suppress total NEV exports.

1. China's automobile exports exploded

Automobile exports continued to rise from January to September 2026. The monthly value rose from 800,000 units in January to 1.18 million units in September. There was only a slight correction in August, and the overall growth momentum was strong.

Compared with the same period in previous years, the overall export volume in each month of 2026 greatly surpassed the same period of 2022 to 2025. The monthly growth rate was over 35%. The year-on-year growth rate reached 56% in September. The cumulative export rate from January to September was 8.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 52%.

Demand from overseas markets continues to be released, and the competitiveness of domestic cars going overseas has steadily increased. The scale and growth rate of automobile exports since April have all reached new highs in the same period of the year.

In 2026, China's automobile exports will experience explosive growth. Automobile exports from January to September 2026 were 8.63 million units, a significant increase of 52% over the same period last year. Among them, 1.182 million units were exported in September, a year-on-year growth rate of 55%, a sharp increase of 13% month-on-month, and the explosive growth was outstanding.

Reviewing the trend of 2019-2025:2021 ushered in an explosion of overseas travel, and the subsequent growth rate slowed year by year; with the trend remaining flat in September of previous years, positive growth of 13% month-on-month was achieved in September 2026, and the complementarity of domestic and overseas demand increased significantly.

2. China's automobile exports continue to rise

Automobile exports continued to rise strongly from January to September 2026. The monthly amount rose from US$14.2 billion in January to US$20.8 billion in September. There was a slight month-on-month decline in August alone, and the monthly values were significantly ahead of the same period from 2022 to 2025.

Compared with previous years, the export value base in 2022 was the lowest and fluctuated moderately throughout the year; there was a steady increase in 2023-2025, but the monthly peak was lower than the level of the first half of 2026.

The growth rate of export value was significantly higher than the growth rate of export volume, reflecting the continued rise in the average price of bicycle exports, the increase in the share of new energy and high-end models, and the shift from large-scale expansion of automobile exports to an increase in value.

From January to September 2026, total automobile exports reached US$149.8 billion, a sharp increase of 54% over the previous year, and the growth rate returned to a high level. Automobile exports in September were US$20.8 billion, up 62% year on year and up 13% month-on-month, breaking the weak pattern at the end of the 2023-2025 September quarter.

3. Auto parts export trends

The trend of parts exports in 2026 was strong, rising to US$9.1 billion in January and US$9.8 billion in September, but continued to recover slightly in February-March and July-August, and the monthly values for April-September were higher overall than in the same period of 2025-2025.

The rule in previous years was that exports in August were high for the whole year, at US$9.1 billion in August 2026, significantly lower than in June, and rebounded significantly in September. The monthly scale for the period from 2022 to 2025 remained in the $5-8 billion range all year round, breaking through the upper limit of the range from June to September 2026.

Vehicle exports are driving an increase in external demand for supporting parts, and overseas demand for new energy components is increasing, supporting the continued rise in parts exports.

The growth rate of parts exports continued to be low from 2022 to 2025. There was a slight year-on-year increase in June-September 2025, and the boom was weak. In 2026, along with the large volume of vehicle exports, external demand for supporting parts picked up at the same time. Production and sales support orders were released centrally in June-September, and the monthly export scale reached a new high in the same period in recent years.

As an important support for vehicle exports, the steady growth in parts exports has built a solid supply chain foundation for the global layout of China's automobile industry, and also provided a continuous supporting guarantee for subsequent vehicle exports.