BTC hits 80,000-88,000: ETF (IBIT.US) outflows and a long and short game under favorable macroeconomic conditions

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin is currently in deep structural trouble, and the price is firmly locked between $88,000 and $80,000. Above, the cost of holding positions for investors entering the market in the past two years is a heavy selling pressure; below, the US Spot ETF (IBIT.US) holding cost of about $81,500 and the order book support level of $80,000 provide a buffer.

Although the price is still higher than the 'real market mean' (Real Market Mean), which represents the average cost for active investors, the short term trend is uncertain due to the intense game between long and short in this range.

Judging from the cost structure of holders, the market faces two major selling groups. The first is investors who bought and held for 6 to 12 months during the late rebound of the 2025 market and the subsequent decline. The cost of holding the position was approximately $88,000. The second is early investors who bought 1 to 2 years ago, and their holding costs are higher, close to $100,000. These two groups have driven prices back several times this year: in January, the price of Bitcoin fell by more than one-third after hitting the cost line for 6 to 12 month holders; in May, the price hit the cost line for 1 to 2 year holders again, and then fell by about a quarter.

Notably, during the rebound in early October, holders of 1 to 2 years intensified their sell-off efforts. As long as Bitcoin fails to effectively break through $88,000, every rise will be met by holders who choose to leave the market when they are close to break-even, creating continued supply pressure.

On-chain data reveals key supporting dynamics. Currently, the Bitcoin transaction price is above the 'real market average', the average holding cost for active investors, which is around $78,000, and also higher than the cost for short-term holders. The price has remained above these two cost levels since September 18, and this range is marked as a bullish trend area on the chart. Another key reference line is the holding cost of US Spot ETFs (IBIT.US) (US Spot ETFs), that is, the average price at which these funds buy Bitcoin, which is around $81,500. Bitcoin prices briefly fell below this level on October 8 and October 13, but then quickly rebounded. Since September 21, the daily closing price has remained above this level; if the closing price falls below this level, ordinary ETF holders will once again fall into losses, and the market will also lose the closest on-chain support.

There has been a fundamental shift in the behavior patterns of long-term holders, marking a reversal in the relationship between supply and demand. Their actual losses peaked on August 12 and have since declined by about 85%. In contrast, in the 2022 bear market, the peak of losses occurred within a few weeks after the low of the cycle. As most of the panic sell-off has been completed, Bitcoin currently in circulation is increasingly being sold profitably. Since 2011, loss-making holders have sold more than profitable holders in every round of a bear market, while the opposite is true in a bull market. At the market low in June, the amount of Bitcoin sold at a loss was about 12 times the amount sold in a profitable state;

However, by the end of August, this ratio was reversed — currently for every 1 Bitcoin sold by profitable holders, about 4 are being sold profitably. Although a profitable settlement may slow the rebound, this is a typical characteristic of the early days of a bull market.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that abrupt changes in ETF capital flows have further exacerbated the lack of buying in the market. At the end of September, when the Bitcoin price surpassed $85,000, the US Spot ETF (IBIT.US) increased its holdings significantly. From September 21 to October 6, these funds bought a total of nearly $3 billion, the fastest buying rate since November 2025.

However, this trend did not last long. Since October 7, the ETF has turned into a net outflow of approximately $760 million. Under the double pressure of ETFs continuing to sell and top buyers selling near the break-even point, the market lacked fresh buying support. Only when the ETF's buying flow stabilizes again will it be a clear sign that demand has returned.

The futures clearing cluster and Binance order book structure together define the current price fluctuation space. On the two-month liquidation heatmap, which reflects where leveraged positions may be forced to close, the density of the area surrounding the price decreased by more than one-fifth in a week. Currently, the largest clearing clusters are located further away and are roughly the same size: one is slightly below $80,000, and the other is around $88,000. If the price falls below $80,000, the long position may be forced to close the price further; if the price rises to around $88,000 (that is, the cost support for 6 to 12 month holders), short sellers may be forced to buy to temporarily support the price. Last week's report indicated that the Binance spot platform's buy offer was around $81,000. After the Bitcoin price crossed this level on October 8, the largest group of buy orders gathered at $80,000, and the cluster increased dramatically on the evening of October 8 and has continued until now.

This buying cluster is below the cost of holding a US spot ETF (IBIT.US), so between $80,000 and $81,500, there is an overlap between order book support and on-chain support. If it falls below this zone, the clearing cluster slightly below $80,000 and the $78,000 'real market average' support will come into play.

The comparison between macro data and historical bear markets reveals the unique resilience of the market. During the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the Bitcoin price was below the 'Actual Realized Price' (Actual Realized Price) for several months. However, the current bear market price never fell below this level. Even at the lowest closing price on June 30, the price was still about one-tenth higher than the “actual realized price” and far higher than the cost for long-term holders. The September CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures announced today were higher than expected: the overall inflation rate was 3.7%, and the core inflation rate was 2.6%. Bitcoin prices fell after the data was released, and the gap between household inflation expectations and the core inflation rate reached the biggest in three years. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on September 16, the first rate hike since 2023. Futures traders increased the probability of another rate hike at the meeting that ended on October 28, and the US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3.

Furthermore, the 'Single Currency Bubble Index' has been high since September 28, but the 'Global Bubble Index' has not reached the top five since it plummeted in October 2025. If Bitcoin falls to the $80,000 support level, highly leveraged altcoins will bear the brunt.

In summary, Bitcoin is in a difficult situation where there is solid support from below and large supply from above. In the short term, ETF sell-off, high CPI data, the upcoming October interest rate decision, and midterm elections, combined with pressure from entrants close to break-even in the past two years, make market conditions need to be treated with caution. However, from a long-term perspective, loss-making sell-offs stopped, profitable holders dominated trading, and prices never fell below the 'actual realized price'. The situation is relatively optimistic. If Bitcoin remains above $88,000 for several days and ETF buying traffic resumes, it will indicate that demand is sufficient to absorb supply pressure.

Once the price falls below the $80,000 support and ETF holding costs, the $78,000 'real market average' will be the next critical line of defense. Relevant data as of October 13, 2026: Includes daily on-chain metrics, October 12 ETF money flow data, and October 14 hourly prices, liquidation heatmaps, and Binance order book data. The core CPI data for September comes from a report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 14, 2026, and the latest daily data is still subject to adjustment. The exchange balance data in this article comes from a comprehensive address label database established by Glassnode and compiled through official public information and self-developed clustering algorithms.

Despite efforts to ensure accuracy, since some exchanges do not disclose official addresses, the data may not fully reflect actual reserves, so users are advised to use it carefully. Glassnode is not responsible for any consequences resulting from data discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.