Guoyuan Securities: AI reshapes the advertising industry and drives industry transformation in multiple dimensions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoyuan Securities released a research report saying that global advertising spending is expected to reach 1.3 trillion US dollars by 2026. The global advertising market is showing resilience, and the industry continues to expand. Currently, the AI-driven user information acquisition paradigm has undergone profound changes, and the user decision link is being restructured by AI. On the traffic side, AI has driven traffic entry migration, and the number of users and visits to AI products has exploded. With the development of generative AI, the advertising industry is being profoundly reshaped. Target focus: Huiliang Technology (01860), EasyDianxia (301171.SZ), Blue Cursor (300058.SZ), Zhejiang Internet (600986.SH), Insai Group (300781.SZ), OneNet (300792.SZ), etc.

Guoyuan Securities's main views are as follows:

AI is reshaping the advertising industry and driving industry transformation in multiple dimensions. Global advertising spending is expected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2026, maintaining steady growth. In 2026, advertising spending in the Chinese market is expected to reach 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. Currently, AI is driving profound changes in the user information acquisition paradigm. The user's search process has evolved into “conversational” interaction, drastically reducing the cost of information acquisition, the “interface level” of search ads and display ads has declined, and AI answers have become the new “first touch point”. In terms of decision links, AI replaces traditional search results pages to complete information screening, summarization, and recommendations. Users can obtain a complete solution without redirecting, greatly shortening the user decision link. In the future, AI agents are expected to further participate in consumer decisions and transaction execution. On the traffic side, AI has driven traffic entry migration, and the number of users and visits to AI products has exploded. As AI models iterate and capabilities soar, the number of visits to AI products and active users continues to rise. Globally, OpenAI currently has more than 1 billion weekly active users; domestically, according to Questmobile data, Doubao MAU reached 382 million in June 2026, Qianwen MAU reached 167 million, and DeepSeek MAU reached 130 million.

Generative search advertising commercialization potential was gradually unleashed, and Google/OpenAI took the lead. WPP predicts that generative search is expected to become the fastest growing channel in history. Ad revenue is expected to soar from US$5.1 billion in 2026 to more than US$100 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of over 100% in 2026-2031. On the Google side, Google launched AI Overview Ads as early as October 2024, and AI Max was released in May 2025. In 2026, Google will launch a series of new ad formats based on the Gemini model and expand the testing scope of direct offers. On the OpenAI side, on January 16, 2026, OpenAI officially announced plans to expand its advertising business. On August 31, OpenAI announced that its ChatGPT Ads had been launched in less than 200 days, had an annualized revenue operating rate of 1 billion US dollars, and was launched in 40 countries/regions. The huge commercialization potential of the advertising business of leading global and Chinese AI platforms has yet to be unleashed. Currently, it is still in the early stages of advertising commercialization exploration.

The marketing paradigm has changed, and GEO has emerged. The development of AI is driving the restructuring of the marketing paradigm. Brand marketing is gradually expanding from competition for traffic entry and advertising exposure to competition for brand recognition, recommended positions, and influence of consumer decisions in AI-generated answers, bringing about new marketing service needs, and GEO is emerging. According to estimates from the Academy of Marketing Sciences, the global GEO market is expected to reach 24 billion US dollars in 2026. The GEO market in the Chinese market is expected to reach 5.6 billion yuan, and the GEO market is expected to reach 24 billion yuan by 2030. GEO is technology-driven, and leading service providers improve their own technical systems by developing their own vertical models and building their own databases. Currently, the GEO service provider segment covers startups, traditional SEO service providers, and PR/advertising agencies. In terms of business models, the current mainstream business models include SaaS product models, service models, and hybrid models. At the same time, the token consumption billing model is on the rise.

AI empowers advertising systems, improves advertising efficiency, and focuses on technological iteration of leading media and tripartite advertising platforms. Generative artificial intelligence drives the evolution of advertising systems from rule matching, feature engineering, and machine learning prediction as the core to intelligent decision-making systems based on large models, enabling platforms in multiple dimensions such as algorithm optimization, creative production, automatic delivery, and performance measurement and attribution. Take the leading media Meta as an example. Empowered by AI, the company optimizes and upgrades various aspects such as advertising recalls, user understanding, basic recommendation models, and real-time ranking through products such as Andromeda and GEM, increasing conversion rates and advertisers' return, and becoming an important engine driving the growth of the advertising business. For tripartite platforms, the development of AI and algorithms enhances the tripartite platform's ability to predict value. Data accumulation and AI algorithms form a flywheel effect to drive platform growth, and push superior platforms to release operating leverage.

[Investment advice]

Global advertising spending is expected to reach 1.3 trillion US dollars in 2026. The global advertising market is showing resilience, and the industry continues to expand. Currently, the AI-driven user information acquisition paradigm has undergone profound changes, and the user decision link is being restructured by AI. On the traffic side, AI has driven traffic entry migration, and the number of users and visits to AI products has exploded. With the development of generative AI, the advertising industry is being profoundly reshaped.

Generative search advertising: Big model manufacturers explore advertising commercialization paths. Generative search advertising is expected to become an emerging high-growth advertising channel. WPP is expected to reach more than 100 billion US dollars by 2030.

The restructuring of the marketing paradigm has brought new marketing service requirements: brand exposure, citation, and recommendation in AI answers have gradually become a new competitive dimension of marketing. GEO is emerging, and AI agents are expected to further participate in consumer decisions and transaction execution in the future. These have all spawned a new battleground for brand marketing and new demand for marketing services.

For leading media: Generative artificial intelligence drives the evolution of advertising systems from traditional rule matching, feature engineering, and machine learning prediction as the core to intelligent decision-making systems based on large models. It promotes the improvement of advertising efficiency in multi-dimensional enabling platforms such as algorithm optimization, creative production, automatic delivery, and performance measurement, and has become an important engine driving the growth of leading media advertising business.

For tripartite programmatic advertising platforms: The development of AI and algorithms enhances the ability of tripartite platforms to predict value, data accumulation and AI algorithms form a flywheel effect to drive platform growth, and push superior platforms to release operating leverage.

Target focus: Huiliang Technology (01860), EasyDianxia (301171.SZ), Blue Cursor (300058.SZ), Zhejiang Internet (600986.SH), Insai Group (300781.SZ), OneNet (300792.SZ), etc.

[Risk Reminder]

The development of generative artificial intelligence falls short of expectations, commercialization exploration by large model manufacturers falls short of expectations, cybersecurity risks, and the risk of tightening policy regulations.