What HUB24 Holders Got Wrong Before The Slide

If you had looked at HUB24 in October 2025 and decided to wait for a clearer entry point instead of buying, the past year might feel surprisingly validating. For HUB24 shareholders, the loss over the past year was 35.5%, including dividends. Fresh headlines now mention a 52 week low, new licence conditions on its superannuation trustee and adviser flows under scrutiny. Which assumptions or warning signs from 2025 would you want to re check before judging that outcome?

The useful thing about a Narrative is that the reasoning is checkable: the assumptions sit beside the argument, and together they imply an estimated Fair Value you can disagree with.

This theme extends beyond HUB24. See which of 11 AI small caps may still merit a closer look.

The Argument HUB24 Investors Actually Faced

The shares cost A$99.94 at the start, and HUB24 sat between two sharply different but credible stories about where the business could go next.

The bullish view put Fair Value at A$115, based on assumptions that adviser network penetration and a wider ecosystem would help push revenue up 19.9% a year and expand profit margins from 19.7% to 27.8% by 2028.

The bearish side saw Fair Value nearer A$40, with forecasts that revenue would grow 15.5% a year and margins would only rise to 22.4% as digital rivals, fee pressure and regulation weighed on HUB24.

What The HUB24 Evidence Actually Tested

HUB24 reported H2 2026 revenue of A$252.9m and net income of A$60.5m, both above H2 2025, with net margin edging up from 22.1% to 23.9%. That pointed toward the bullish case on profitability. Fresh licence conditions on its superannuation trustee and a 52 week low after softer Q3 inflows gave weight to the cautious view on regulatory and fee pressure. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The key assumption investors needed to track was margin expansion. For a future HUB24 style decision, focus on whether net margin and recurring platform revenue move toward the thesis, even if adviser flows or regulation keep throwing curveballs.

What You Would Be Paying For In HUB24 Today

HUB24 now trades at A$65.08 after a 35.5% loss over the past year, while the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price based on its own assumptions.

The Narrative refers to adviser share gains, myhub, HUBconnect and AI tools reshaping the earnings mix. A buyer today would need to judge whether those ecosystems and cash flows can matter more than near term expense growth and tighter fee margins for the fall to look like an opportunity rather than a warning.

"The myhub ecosystem and AI enabled tools such as advice review, virtual mailroom, intelligent matching and Engage reporting, when combined with the HUBconnect data layer, can deepen HUB24’s role in adviser and accountant workflows and support higher average revenue per user and stickier earnings streams from software and platform fees."

The price and this Narrative do not agree. → Uncover what this Narrative says HUB24 is actually worth

Before The Next Story Makes Headlines

This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 34% below our estimate - builds a stable of specialist fund managers using shared distribution and trustee infrastructure.
• Company 2 - 43% below our estimate - wins complex fit out work where audiovisual, electrical and data networks must integrate tightly.
• Company 3 - 32% below our estimate - runs long term contracts to maintain essential transport, utilities and facilities infrastructure networks.

Those are three of them. See every one of the 4 undervalued companies on it →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com