Bitcoin falls below the $82,000 mark, expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike weigh on, and analysts continue to be bullish

The Zhitong Finance App learned that due to factors such as US inflation data exceeding expectations, rising expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and a sell-off in technology stocks, Bitcoin once fell 2.3% on Wednesday, approaching the lower end of the recent trading range, and the price hovered around $81,700. Despite the overall pressure on the cryptocurrency market, the latest survey shows that analysts' bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin has increased significantly, highlighting the differences between short-term market performance and medium- to long-term expectations.

According to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September released on Wednesday, consumer prices recorded the fastest increase since April, prompting traders to increase their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks were once again sold off. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 2%, and the US dollar rose to its highest level since May 2025.

The resurgence of inflationary pressure, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the decline in technology stocks have all weakened investors' demand for high-risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market has not been spared. However, in stark contrast to Bitcoin's recent weakness, the optimism of cryptocurrency analysts is rapidly picking up.

According to a report released by cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant on Wednesday, the Bitcoin 30-day Analyst Consensus Index has jumped from -18.3 in July to 49.2, reflecting a significant rise in market bullishness. Meanwhile, the share of analysts who are bullish on Bitcoin climbed from 37% to 84%, reflecting a clear shift in market researchers' judgment on Bitcoin's future market.

However, the improvement in analysts' sentiment has yet to translate into continued price increases. In the historic cryptocurrency market crash more than a year ago, leveraged bets that were liquidated in a single day reached a record $19 billion. Today, Bitcoin is still more than 30% below its all-time high, and many attempts to rebound have failed to form a continuous upward trend.

At the same time, traders have been slow to re-establish leveraged positions that previously fueled a sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market, leaving Bitcoin with no incentive to break through further.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, said that the current global financial market environment is still very severe. He pointed out that high inflation and high energy prices are limiting global monetary liquidity, and market concerns about the investment prospects of large technology companies and AI are increasing, further suppressing investors' appetite for risky assets.

“The current environment in global financial markets is quite difficult,” Hougan said. He believes that multiple macroeconomic factors have combined to limit the performance of risky assets, making it difficult for Bitcoin to escape the current volatile pattern.

However, he is still optimistic about Bitcoin's future market. Hougan said he believes Bitcoin has bottomed out in June of this year and expects its price to be higher than the current level at the end of the year.

In addition to falling Bitcoin prices, crypto-related stocks in the US stock market are also generally under pressure. On Wednesday, shares of the US cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase (COIN.US) fell 4.9%, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) fell 5.6%, and Bitcoin holding company Strategy (MSTR.US) fell 5.9%.

Overall, despite the significant increase in bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency analysts, continued inflationary pressure in the US, rising interest rate expectations, and a tightening global liquidity environment are still limiting Bitcoin's room for a short-term rebound.

As the market re-evaluates the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path and the potential impact of the AI investment boom on risky assets, whether Bitcoin can break out of the recent trading range and begin a continuous rebound will still depend on changes in the macroeconomic environment and investors' risk appetite.