Trump's post ignites Greenland concept stocks! Greenland Energy (GLND.US) surged 93% ahead of market as “large-scale” oil and gas exploration plans announced

The Zhitong Finance App learned that US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday local time that Greenland is about to launch “large-scale” oil, gas and mineral exploration, adding that experts believe the island's “easy to mine” oil reserves are far higher than almost anywhere else in the world. After the post was published, Greenland-related concept stocks collectively changed in the US stock market: Greenland Energy (GLND.US) rose 93% before the market, Greenland Mines (GRML.US) surged 40%, and Critical Metals (CRML.US) rose about 4%.

But up to now, no company has obtained a license, offtake agreement, or funding as a result of this post — this judgment is the starting point for understanding this round of market conditions.

What did the post say and didn't say?

According to reports, Trump's original words were: “Massive oil, gas, and mineral exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!” (Large-scale oil, gas and mineral exploration is about to commence in our new and beautiful Greenland). He quoted experts as saying that “far more oil can be extracted on the island than almost anywhere else in the world.” In addition to resources, he emphasized Greenland's defense value: any attack against the US “must pass through Greenland,” where US defense forces will routinely intercept drones, missiles “and even any weapon that has not been conceived,” adding that the island provides “a time, location, and vision unmatched by any other part of the world.”

However, the media gave a key limitation in the report: it is unclear what specific exploration or development project the president is referring to; Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, not part of the United States. Trump himself did not disclose the details, scale, or timeline of the project.

Concept Stock Market Ledger: The same batch of names rose

The direct beneficiaries of this round of changes are the three US small-cap stocks directly linked to Greenland:

GLND (Greenland Energy): Up 93% before the market, and is expected to end nine consecutive trading days of decline — the stock has accumulated a decline of nearly 57% during the previous sell-off. It once surged 140% after the September agreement, but since then it has closed down for most trading days, with a cumulative increase of 84% as of Tuesday's close; it is still a sharp drop of 78% since 2026.

GRML (Greenland Mines): Surging 40% in the premarket. After the announcement of the September agreement, it rose 230%, and as of Tuesday's closing, the increase narrowed to 94%; a cumulative decline of 65% during the year.

CRML (Critical Metals): Up about 4% before the market, recording the third upward trading day of the month. Shares have fallen nearly 3% since the agreement was announced in September, and fell 19% during the year.

The linkage is not limited to the three Greenlandic companies. According to reports, on the day the Medanger Safety Agreement was announced in September, the rare earth and key minerals sector strengthened overall: CRML, MP Materials (MP.US), Energy Fuels (UUUU.US), NioCorp Developments (NB.US), and Idaho Strategic Resources all showed significant increases, while VanEck's rare earths and strategic metals ETF (REMX) rose by only 2% — individual stocks were significantly more elastic than ETFs. Entering October, the sector recovered with the market: according to market data, MP Materials closed at $42.43 on October 13, down 2.14%, while USA Rare Earth closed at $11.28, down 4.57%, which occurred at the same time as the cross-market sell-off of storage stocks on the same day.

Why can a Greenland post leverage the entire rare earth chain?

What is actually being traded is not oil, but permanent magnet materials. Neodymium and praseodymium (commonly known as NDPr) are the core raw materials for high-strength magnets in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, drones, guided munitions, and industrial robots. According to industry estimates, China controls more than 90% of the world's rare earth refining production capacity and a similar ratio of finished magnet production. Under this structure, any geographical clue that may increase supply “outside of China” will quickly be transmitted to buying rare earth stocks.

Greenland is exactly in the position of the key variable in this logic. According to reports, the island has large rare earth deposits, which are used in everything from computers and smartphones to batteries, solar and wind energy technology; the Trump administration is trying to break external dependence on the supply of key minerals. Cooperation on the policy side is also progressing intensively: the Trump administration finalized a $1.55 billion funding package this week to build a local supply chain, including equity investment, debt support, and long-term procurement commitments. USA Rare Earth is the center of the funding package; on the MP Materials side, the US Defense Department invested 400 million US dollars in July 2025 to become the largest shareholder and signed an agreement to buy its products at more than twice the market price.

The respective business bases of the three Greenland standards also provide room for imagination: Greenland Mines is developing the Sarfartoq rare earth project, recently raised more than $42 million for exploration and development until 2027, and has applied for new permits for approximately 262 square kilometres; Critical Metals is advancing the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, which it says contains 19 key elements, and received government approval for its pre-2050 mining plan earlier this month; Greenland Energy is exploring oil and gas in the Jameson Land basin in eastern Greenland through an 80 Mile partnership, extending the deadline for two exploration wells to December 2028 in September this year.

The Three Hard Restraints: The Distance Between Markets and Fundamentals

If you juxtapose the market with fundamentals, you will see three obvious gaps.

First, the license has not been relaxed. Greenland has suspended the issuance of new oil and gas exploration licences since 2021. The September Medanger agreement was expanded by the US military presence on the island. According to reports, the agreement did not grant the US any special exploration rights, but only set restrictions on investment in strategic fields by non-NATO countries — it changed “who can invest in Greenland's minerals” rather than “whether the minerals can be mined.”

Second, the text of the agreement has not been published, and no commercial rights are attached. According to the analysis of the industry publication Mining Stocks, the full text of the agreement has not been published, and the announcement so far has not issued licenses, offtake agreements, or funds to any company; the publication also notes that the agreement does not change geological conditions, logistics conditions, or the size of capital required for development.

Third, physical and climatic constraints have never disappeared. Historical experience is that the harsh climate, lack of critical infrastructure, and complex geological conditions have deterred companies from exploring and extracting resources in Greenland for decades, and previous rare earth and oil and gas extraction efforts have never passed through the exploration stage.

Oil and gas side: a price line boosted by the “biggest supply interruption in history”

Trump's choice to post at this time is directly related to the energy price situation. The Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill since the conflict broke out in March of this year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil supply has declined by a record 12.8 million barrels per day since the conflict, and called this the largest supply outage in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude oil once rose from about $61 in early January to a peak of $118.35 on March 31, fell back to about $72 in July, and rebounded back to around $105 around October 9; Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, pointed out that the IEA could temporarily increase supply flows, but it would not create new production capacity.

The rise in energy prices is putting real pressure on America's working class ahead of the midterm elections, and Trump's statement on Wednesday is likely meant to respond to voters' concerns — which also explains why a post without details would be viewed as favorable on the market.

Emotional aspects and institutional perspectives

Despite the sharp rise in the pre-market, retail sentiment around CRML, GRML, and GLND on the platform remained in a “bearish” range over the past 24 hours, but the overall discussion was optimistic. One user who follows GLND wrote: As soon as Trump announces the licensing and commencement of drilling, “the rest will be history”; another user expects CRML to rise to $20, with 185% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, in the September agreement round, CRML's retail sentiment jumped from “neutral” to “bullish,” and the number of discussions rose from “high” to “extremely high.”

Putting the two rounds of the market together, the logic is actually quite consistent: what drives the stock price is the narrative intensity of the policy, not the progress bar of the project. Daniel Hynes's statement about strategic inventory “not creating new production capacity” also applies to Greenland — the posts, agreements, and funding packages change expectations and investment access. Exploration permits, environmental assessments, infrastructure, and capital expenditure are the ones that turn expectations into production, and none of these steps have changed today. GLND still fell 78% and GRML fell 65% during the year, which is probably a reflection of this gap in price.