IEA Further Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast as US-Iran War Disrupts Supply

06:00 AM EDT, 10/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The International Energy Agency further reduced its 2026 global oil demand outlook amid ongoing supply disruptions from the US-Iran war and the resulting economic strain of surging fuel prices. In its October oil market report published Wednesday, the IEA said global oil demand is now projected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels per day on average this year, compared with the previous month's forecast of 2.5 million barrels per day on average. Meanwhile, a partial rebound of 2 million barrels per day leaves 2027 global oil use 620,000 barrels per day, or 0.6%, below 2025 consumption. Meanwhile, global supply is now projected to drop by 5.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2026, to 100.7 million barrels per day on average, before rebounding in the next year. However, the IEA cautioned that renewed fighting in the Gulf leaves the recovery "fragile." "A recovery in Middle East oil supply was well underway in September, with Gulf crude oil exports approaching pre-war levels. However, the recent escalation in attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tanker traffic is threatening to derail further gains. At the same time, record tanker rates raised crude delivery costs and eroded refinery margins," the report noted.