Xiaomo: Lowering the installed capacity forecast for the mainland wind power sector and still has a positive view on offshore wind power and export-related opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report saying that due to weak profits and a slowdown in onshore demand growth, the bank lowered its onshore installed capacity forecast and anticipated a slight increase in the 2030 fiscal year. However, it still has a positive view of offshore wind power and export-related opportunities, benefiting from stronger policy support, recovery of project pipelines, and increased global competitiveness of Chinese suppliers.

The bank currently anticipates that the installed capacity of onshore wind power will remain stable at around 90 gigawatts per year in 2030. In terms of offshore wind power, with improved project execution and the conversion of development pipelines to installed capacity, the expected installed capacity will gradually recover from about 7 gigawatts in FY2026 and 9 GW in FY2027 to about 11 to 13 gigawatts per year from 2028 to 2030.

In terms of shares, in the offshore wind power sector, the bank favors Oriental Cable A shares (603606.SH), benefiting from improved offshore demand prospects and a high entry threshold for the industry. In terms of export themes, the bank is optimistic about Goldwind Technology's H shares (02208) and Daikin Heavy Industries H shares (01081). It is expected that both will continue to increase overseas market share, which is supported by increased competitiveness in China's wind power supply chain. The bank also raised the ratings of Mingyang Smart (601615.SH) and Datang New Energy (01798) to “neutral” and “increased holdings”. The target price of Datang New Energy was raised from HK$1.25 to HK$1.4, and Mingyang Smart was raised from RMB 10 to RMB 13.