Stocks Finish Lower Ahead of Wednesday’s CPI Report
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down by -0.02% on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.31%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) fell -0.02%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) fell -0.32%.
Stock indexes settled lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1.5-week low. Weakness in chipmakers weighed on the broader market Tuesday amid concerns that investment in artificial intelligence may be unsustainable due to safety concerns and signs of funding strain. Also, a selloff in South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix knocked South Korea’s Kospi Index down more than -5% on Tuesday to a 2.5-month low amid concerns over intensifying competition from China, adding additional pressure to chip stocks.
However, stocks recovered from their worst levels on Tuesday as bond yields fell on dovish Fed comments that bolstered speculation the Fed won’t be forced to raise interest rates aggressively. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the recent surge in long-term bond yields is helping to curb demand in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing and automobiles, doing some of the Fed's work to tighten monetary policy. Waller’s comments suggest he favors holding policy steady at the FOMC meeting later this month. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said, "It may be appropriate for one more 25 bp Fed rate hike this year, but I don't think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more."
Hawkish comments on Tuesday from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee limited the decline in T-note yields when he said inflation tied to the AI boom is "jumping out of its lane" and starting to push up prices in unrelated corners of the economy. The 10-year T-note yield fell -3 bp to 5.21%.
Tuesday’s US economic news was supportive for stocks after Sep existing home sales unexpectedly rose +1.5% m/m to 3.99 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.95 million.
Stocks have support from the prospect of solid quarterly earnings results starting this week. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its three-month view on global equity markets to overweight from neutral, saying. “Earnings growth remains supportive for equities and the recent valuation de-rating has improved asymmetry into the third-quarter earnings season.”
According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 profits are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. Q3 earnings season begins this week when US money center banks report.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global GDP forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July and kept its 2026 global consumer price forecast unchanged from July at 4.7%.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) rose slightly on Tuesday amid concerns about Middle East energy-supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia has seen an increase in attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen in recent days, while Iran has ramped up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Gains in crude were limited on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia said its Sep crude production rose by +2 million bpd (+40% m/m) to 8.732 million bpd, recovering from a 36-year low in August. Goldman Sachs estimates a $24-a-barrel risk premium in crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, if Europe releases half the diesel it has announced from reserves, fair value prices could fall by about $11 a barrel.
Markets are discounting a 22% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.55%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2.5-month low and closed up +0.10%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -1.82%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed up by +5.5 ticks on Tuesday. The 10-year T-note yield fell -2.5 bp to 5.213%. Dec T-notes rose to a 1-week high on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 5.171%. Lower inflation expectations supported gains in T-notes on Tuesday after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 2.336%. Dovish Fed comments also supported T-note prices on Tuesday when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the recent surge in long-term bond yields is doing some of the Fed’s work to tighten monetary policy, suggesting he favors holding policy steady at the FOMC meeting later this month. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said that after the Fed hikes rates one more time this year, he believes the Fed’s rate-hike cycle is done.
T-note gains were limited Tuesday after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation remains too high. Also, Tuesday’s report showing Sep existing home sales unexpectedly increased weighed on T-notes.
European government bond yields were mixed on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 3.426% and finished down -0.8 bp to 3.469%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +0.7 bp to 5.447%.
Markets are discounting a 12% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks retreated for a second session on Tuesday, weighing on the overall market. Applied Materials (AMAT) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after failing to give a detailed outlook at an investor day conference. Also, Micron Technology (MU) and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -3%, and Lam Research (LRCX) closed down more than -2%. In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Western Digital (WDC) closed down more than -1%.
Pharmaceutical stocks sold off on Tuesday. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) closed down more than -4%, and Merck & Co (MRK), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc (JAZZ), and Untragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) closed down more than -2%. Also, Gilead Sciences (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) closed down more than -1%.
Energy producers and service providers rallied on Tuesday as WTI crude prices rose. Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +4%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up more than +3%. Also, APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Devon Energy (DVN) closed up more than +2%, and Chevron (CVX), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) closed up more than +1%.
Telecom operators moved higher on Tuesday. Charter Communications (CHTR) closed up more than +4%, and T-Mobile US (TMUS), Comcast (CMCSA), Verizon Communications (VZ), and AT&T (T) closed up more than +1%.
Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) closed down more than -16% after saying its MAXPIRe Phase 2 trial of its axatilimab to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed to meet its primary endpoint.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed down more than -8% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
SentinelOne (S) closed down more than -6% after announcing that it intends to offer $1.25 billion in convertible senior notes due in 2031 via private placement.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting full-year sales of $101.00 billion to $101.40 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $101.24 billion.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) closed down more than -5% after reporting Q3 total domestic store comparable sales growth of +0.30%, below the consensus of +0.72%.
Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, adding to Monday’s +3% gain, after releasing a new artificial intelligence model called Muse Wonder, which the company claims has “frontier capabilities.”
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) closed up more than +2% after its Board of Directors approved a $500 million stock buyback plan.
Amer Sports (AS) closed up more than +2% after Jefferies initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $42.
Earnings Reports (10/14/2026)
Bank of America Corp (BAC), Blackrock Inc (BLK), Fastenal Co (FAST), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive Corp/The (PGR), State Street Corp (STT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.