The Math Behind $400,000 Bitcoin By 2029

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be entering a new bull market and hit between $340,000 and $400,000 over the next few years, according to Look Into Bitcoin’s Matt Crosby.

Why BTC’s Bull Market Is Just Beginning

Crosby argued on Monday’s edition of the Milk Road podcast that Bitcoin has completed only 8.5% of its potential cycle based on historical long-term holder distribution patterns.

Multiple on-chain indicators suggest BTC established a bear market bottom around $60,000 in July and long-term holders have sold just 3.16% of their supply, compared with 37% to 38% in previous bull markets.

The bottom also coincided with turning points in global M2 liquidity growth and the U.S. Dollar Index, reinforcing his bullish outlook.

How Bitcoin Could Reach $400,000

Crosby compared Bitcoin’s potential rally to silver’s bull market, when the latter’s valuation multiplied from almost $1 trillion to $7 trillion.

A similar move could push Bitcoin toward $400,000 within two to three years, while alternative models suggest targets of $340,000 to $390,000.

He estimated that Bitcoin capturing 1% of global invested capital could support a $281,000 valuation.

Crosby argued that institutional adoption, ETF inflows and limited liquid supply could accelerate gains, potentially creating a 6.2-times multiplier on incoming capital.

However, these projections remain speculative and depend on favorable liquidity and sustained adoption.

$100,000 Before Year-End?

Crosby expects Bitcoin could consolidate or correct further, identifying $75,000 near the 200-day moving average as key support.

On the other hand, reclaiming the two-year moving average around $90,000 could pave the way for further gains.

Crosby sees $100,000 as achievable by year-end but considers fresh all-time highs in 2026 less likely amid macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and the U.S. midterm elections.

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