BTC stabilizes after the $8.2 billion liquidation storm, and CPI data will determine whether to win or lose

According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin rebounded from a low point after experiencing a sharp leveraged liquidation storm of US$8208.4 million. Currently, the market is waiting for key macro data to guide the direction. The purge, which affected 170,649 investors, was confirmed by CoinGlass statistics. It marked a complete exposure of the vulnerability of highly leveraged long positions to price fluctuations, while also laying the groundwork for subsequent market trends.

On October 12, the price of Bitcoin fell to around $81,000 and then rebounded to $83,635. This sharp shock directly triggered large-scale forced liquidation. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, long positions accounted for up to 84% of total 24-hour liquidations, involving an amount of US$689.1.1 million, which clearly reveals how fast concentrated bullish bets collapse when the trend reverses. Among them, the BTCUSDT contract underwent the largest single liquidation on the Binance platform, amounting to $9.65 million, and the position was forcibly closed at a price of $81,772.75.

Notably, Binance alone handled 50.6% of all liquidation transactions, showing the dominant liquidity dominance of leading exchanges under extreme market conditions. In terms of asset distribution, Bitcoin itself had a liquidation amount of US$194.28 million, of which 73.8% came from long positions; Ethereum followed, with a liquidation amount of US$183.5 million. Other altcoins have also been hit hard: Ethereum is currently trading at $2,528, down 6.3% over the past week; Ripple (XRP) is $1.37, down 2.25% in 24 hours.

However, market sentiment has reversed markedly in the short term. Of the $73.37 million liquidations in the past 4 hours, $66.39 million came from short selling positions, accounting for more than 90%. This indicates that the current rebound is partly driven by shorting the market rather than a fresh influx of buying.

Meanwhile, trading volume surged 92% to $305.2 billion, further increasing market volatility.

In addition to the micro-transaction structure, macro-level capital flows and inflation expectations pose deeper pressure. From October 5 to October 9, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net outflow of about US$679 million, which is equivalent to the withdrawal of nearly 8,000 bitcoins. Of these, October 7 was the worst day with 5,670 outflows in a single day. On October 12, there was another outflow of $65.4 million, all from BLK.US (BlackRock) IBIT (IBIT.US) products.

This continued withdrawal of funds reflects a temporary weakening in institutional demand, although it does not amount to a direct sale of underlying assets by holders. Meanwhile, inflationary pressure remains severe. Currently, the oil transaction price is about 93.50 US dollars per barrel. The CPI rose 3.4% year on year in August, compounded by the rise in US Treasury yields, which reduced the relative attractiveness of unprofitable assets such as Bitcoin. The forecast market on Polymarket shows that analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October, but the probability of raising interest rates in December is as high as 76%.

This uncertainty in monetary policy directly affects the valuation logic of risky assets.

On the technical side, the Bitcoin price is currently still above the $80,660 support level. If the daily close falls below this level, the next key support will move down to near the $80,000 integer mark. In terms of an upward breakout, $84,000 was the primary obstacle, while $87,145 was the key resistance level to stop the price increase twice at the end of September. Only an effective break through this resistance can be seen as a sign of a real recovery in the market. The next decisive moment was the release of the CPI data on October 14 and the PPI data on October 15.

If inflation data is moderate, Bitcoin is expected to rebound to around $87,145; conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, it may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a tighter policy, which in turn will trigger a new wave of liquidations falling below $80,660. The current rebound is only viewed as a temporary pause until it breaks through at key points. The author of this article, Alex, has seven years of experience in the digital asset industry and has focused on identifying emerging trends since entering the market in 2017. His views are available on 99Bitcoins X platform and YouTube channel.