RBC Sees Q3 Margin Squeeze for Ahold Delhaize in US, Europe

06:03 AM EDT, 10/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets forecasts margin compression for Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS) in the US and Europe in the third quarter, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, volume pressures in the US and European deflationary trends. "US topline trends look softer. We think that high gas prices and rising interest rates have led to further downwards pressure on US food retail volumes in Q3. Additionally, we expect the Cyclospora outbreak in summer has impacted sales in high margin fresh produce categories, and headwinds from SNAP changes, egg deflation and the pharmacy Inflation Reduction Act persist (we model a total -160bps headwind in Q3, broadly in line with Q2)," analysts said Monday in a note focused on the European retailing industry. The research firm said European food inflation continued to drop in the quarter, notably in Ahold's largest European market, the Netherlands, where food prices are now deflationary. Although "strong competitive offers" should keep volumes "resilient," RBC models a 15-basis-point decline in European operating margins amid expectations of a "more moderate" topline and operating deleverage. Within this context, analysts trimmed their underlying pretax profit, dividend per share and EPS forecasts for full-year 2026 through 2028 by 1% to 2%. RBC also trimmed the sector perform-rated stock's price target to 37 euros from 38 euros. Ahold Delhaize is scheduled to publish its third-quarter results on Nov. 4.