American League: Hong Kong's business registration volume continued to hit a 5-year high in the first three quarters and maintained a year-on-year increase of about 15% year-on-year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to data from the Comprehensive Land Registry of the United States Retail Data Research Department, in the first three quarters of 2026, a total of 3,963 commercial and commercial registration cases were recorded, up about 16.5% year on year, continuing to reach a record high of the same period in the past 5 years; the registration amount recorded about HK$40.57 billion, and the year-on-year decline narrowed sharply to 0.2%, which is close to the same period last year.

Ma Taiyang, CEO of Midland Group and Midland Stores, described the trend of commercial stores as “gradually improving,” pointing out that trading continues to stabilize, and that the cumulative registration amount is gradually approaching the same period last year, reflecting an increase in carrying capacity. However, there are still differences in the pace of recovery in various sectors. In addition, banks are still conservative in approving commercial mortgages, and market confidence will take time to fully restore, maintaining the forecast that the annual number of commercial and commercial store transaction registrations is about 5,200, an increase of about 15% over the previous year.

In September 2026 alone, the number of commercial and commercial store registrations in Hong Kong recorded 469, up 14.4% from the previous month; the registration amount recorded about HK$4.37 billion, a decrease of 4.3% over the previous month. The number of registered commercial and commercial transactions has remained at least 400 per month for 7 consecutive months. Ma Taiyang pointed out that second-hand properties accounted for about 90% of the total registration volume in September, which was the main support for trading in that month, reflecting that the market was not mainly driven by first-hand new property sales. I believe that as some landlords increase their bargaining space, it will be easier for buyers to find properties that meet budget and return requirements, which will help strengthen the trading base.

Commercial buildings continue to be the only category in the three major commercial and commercial sectors to record a cumulative “sharp rise in volume”. The total number of commercial building transactions registered in the first three quarters was 1,015, an increase of 19% over the previous year, the highest increase among the three major sectors; the registration amount recorded about HK$20.2 billion, an increase of 15.6% over the previous year.

In September alone, 119 commercial building sales registrations were recorded, down 16.2% from the previous month; the registration amount was about HK$2.01 billion, a decrease of 18.2% over the previous month. Ma Taiyang pointed out that he continues to be optimistic about the rental and purchase demand for office buildings in the core area. Despite a recent decline in monthly transactions, registration volume and amounts in the first three quarters continued to rise year on year, indicating that market carrying capacity has improved compared to last year, and it is not appropriate to judge the overall trend weakening based on short-term fluctuations alone.

The vacancy rate for grade A office buildings in the indicator fell further to 8.5% in September, hitting a new low after December 2020. The vacancy rate in traditional core business districts remained low, while the vacancy rate of Jiaxia in emerging commercial districts such as East Kowloon, Kwai Chung and Shatin also declined, recording 16.1%, 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, reflecting the continued increase in demand for office buildings, and enterprises are gradually absorbing the area's floor space.

On the other hand, the Jiaxia sales price index has fallen by a cumulative total of about 4.5% since this year, but the rent index rose by about 1.7% during the same period. Ma Taiyang believes that the decline in the vacancy rate and the recovery in rents will help improve rental return conditions for office buildings and also support long-term buyers to evaluate entry into the market. However, whether prices can fully stabilize depends on carrying capacity and the financial industry environment.

In the retail market, the number of transaction registrations recorded 110 in September, up 12.2% from the previous month; the registration amount recorded about HK$1.3 billion, a sharp increase of 62.3% over the previous year, and reached a one-year high. In the first three quarters, the total number of store transactions registered was 926, up 14.3% year on year; registration amount was approximately HK$9.68 billion, down 21.4% year on year.

Ma Taiyang said that the share of stores rebounded simultaneously in September, bringing a positive signal to the market. What is particularly noteworthy is that the monthly registration amount of stores rose to a one-year high. The main reason is that a total of 5 retail sales registrations of over HK$50 million to HK$100 million were recorded in September, the highest number in a single month since November 2025, reflecting the gradual acceptance of medium- and high-value properties by buyers. He believes that at this stage, buyers will still focus on the store's actual rental income, tenant stability, and local consumption demand, rather than simply hoping for a price rebound. Stores that are located in the core area, have perfect transportation facilities, and can benefit the most from the tourism industry and a sound leasing base are expected to be easier to accept; if owners adopt pricing close to the market, it will help facilitate transactions.

In the industrial building market, the number of trade registrations recorded 240 in September, up 41.2% from the previous month, making it the category with the biggest increase in the number of transactions among the three major sectors; the registration amount recorded about HK$1.06 billion, a decrease of 19.0% over the previous month. Cumulatively, in the first three quarters, the number of industrial building trading registrations recorded 2,022, an increase of 16.2% over the previous year. It continues to be the most active trading category among the three major commercial and commercial sectors; the registration amount was approximately HK$10.87 billion, down 1.5% from the previous year.

Ma Taiyang pointed out that the number of industrial buildings registered in a single month increased markedly, but the amount declined, reflecting that transactions in that month were biased towards less expensive properties. The cumulative registration volume continued to increase significantly in the first three quarters, and the cumulative registration amount was close to the same period last year, indicating that the market acceptance base is gradually improving. The vacancy rate of industrial buildings fell to 4.2%, a new low after November 2024. Ma Taiyang believes that the decline in the vacancy rate reflects an improvement in the industrial floor absorption situation and has a supporting effect on the industrial building leasing and trading market. Industrial and warehousing properties with practical space, convenient transportation and logistics facilities, and reasonable pricing are expected to continue to attract the attention of users and investors.

Looking ahead to the future market, Ma Taiyang believes that trading in the commercial and commercial store market is gradually picking up, leasing performance has also improved, and overall market conditions are “gradually improving.” The Federal Reserve restarted raising interest rates in September, but it is difficult to predict the chances of raising interest rates again. However, the market generally believes that Hong Kong's mortgage interest rate will not necessarily rise at the same time. More importantly, since banks have always been cautious about approving mortgages for non-residential properties, the commercial store market's financing conditions are already tight, so the direct impact of this rate hike on the market is expected to be relatively limited. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the increase in the return appeal of fixed-rate products, or attract some capital inflows, causing commercial and commercial investment to face the pressure of capital diversion.

Based on overall trading and leasing performance, Ma Taiyang maintained the forecast of about 5,200 commercial store registrations for the year, which is expected to increase by about 15% over the same period last year. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the market will still mainly target properties with rental support, reasonable returns, and attractive pricing. Among them, high-quality commercial buildings in core locations, mature shopping areas, and industrial buildings with actual usage needs are expected to continue to be the focus of buyers' attention.