RBC Updates Estimates for Crédit Agricole Amid French Headwinds, Auto Leasing Drag

01:52 AM EDT, 10/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets revised its model for Crédit Agricole (ACA.PA) ahead of the French lender's third-quarter results on Oct. 30, noting ongoing weakness in auto leasing and persistent political uncertainty in France. "We lower estimates for Casa's leasing operations due to a continued challenging environment in the automotive market. We expect higher rates to benefit the retail operations and Caceis with some mix changes and competition acting as smaller headwinds. Casa updated the guidance for the contribution of its stake in BPM (EUR150m per quarter now reduced by EUR20m PPA) with Q3 impacted by a catch-up of the PPA amortisation for H1. We understand that the PPA amortisation will continue for some time. Climate-related events are likely to have impacted the insurance operation's Q3 performance; however, the extent to which resulting claims are covered by reinsurance remains unclear," according to a Monday note. The research firm added that the lender's role in the Italian sector consolidation and political risk in France continue to weigh on Crédit Agricole's shares. While management favors merging its Italian business with Banco BPM (BAMI.MI), RBC noted that specifics on the potential deal remain sparse. Meanwhile, domestic political friction threatens consumer and business sentiment alongside loan growth, although analysts view the impact on the capital ratio as "limited" as most French sovereign bonds are held to maturity. "One-off taxes in France might not remain one-off so we take a more conservative stance," the note said. As a result, analysts trimmed EPS estimates by 1.6% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, as well as by 3.2% for 2028, driven primarily by lower estimates for the Specialised Financial Services unit and a reduced contribution from Banco BPM. As such, RBC lowered the sector perform-rated stock's price target to 19 euros from 20 euros.