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Missed Eli Lilly's Rally? Here Is What Holders Saw

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

If Eli Lilly sat on your watchlist instead of in your portfolio, the gap between watching and owning may feel uncomfortable. For Eli Lilly shareholders, the return over the past year was 45.2%, including dividends. That move now invites a harder question. Back on 12 October 2025, could you reasonably have spotted that aging and obesity trends might support a much larger chronic disease market than many models assumed?

Narratives are how investors here put a case on the record, with explicit assumptions about revenue, margins and the multiple. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.

This theme extends beyond Eli Lilly. See which of 33 healthcare AI stocks may still merit a closer look.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On Eli Lilly

The shares cost US$833 at the start of the period, which meant every decision on Eli Lilly had to begin with whether that price already baked in aggressive chronic disease expectations.

The bull Narrative treated aging and obesity as a powerful tailwind and put Fair Value at US$1,190, or 43% above the start price. It leaned on small molecule scale, LillyDirect, and an assumption that revenue could rise 24.3% a year with profit margins reaching 39.1% by 2028.

The bear Narrative set Fair Value at US$650, or 22% below the start price, and highlighted drug pricing reform and patent expiry risk. It focused on pressure from U.S. and international pricing parity efforts and the concentration in Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Trulicity if biosimilars or adverse data hit those franchises.

NYSE:LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NYSE:LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

What The Eli Lilly Evidence Actually Tested

Eli Lilly’s Q2 2026 update showed revenue at US$22,974m and net income at US$7,095m, both above Q2 2025 levels, which leaned toward the bullish volume story. Net margin slipped from 36.4% to 30.9%, and fresh pricing pressure and obesity competition in the news challenged the clean margin expansion the optimists had pencilled in. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The hinge assumption here was powerful volume growth overcoming pricing and cost pressure. When you look at another pharma stock, test that claim directly by tracking both top-line progress and the reported net margin rather than just headline revenue or guidance upgrades.

What Eli Lilly’s Current Price Already Assumes

Today Eli Lilly trades at US$1,183. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below that level, which frames the stock as already pricing in a strong execution story rather than leaving clear valuation slack.

The Narrative focuses on legal, pricing and reimbursement pressure as the main sources of friction for that story. A buyer today is effectively assuming that Lilly converts its incretin build out and cardiometabolic pipeline into sustained global volume growth. The key question is how much weight to place on the risk that pricing pressure and legal overhangs limit the potential payoff from that assumption.

"The main factor that needs to go right is that Eli Lilly converts its large incretin manufacturing build out, obesity access programs and cardiometabolic pipeline into durable worldwide volume growth that more than offsets pricing pressure and any legal or safety overhangs."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all

Which Company Could Surprise You Next?

You may be late to this rally, but that does not have to mean arriving late to every opportunity. Start with companies whose prices leave room for a different view of their future. Here are three trading below our estimates.

  • Company 1 - 41% below our estimate - shifts from hardware-focused display sales toward software, services and efficiency improvements.
  • Company 2 - 34% below our estimate - expands high horsepower capacity and power solutions supporting extended data center commitments.
  • Company 3 - 24% below our estimate - builds tracking platforms while scaling newer storage, inverter and non-tracker energy offerings.

Three companies from the same screener. Open all 29 potentially undervalued companies →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.