Aurora Cannabis Stock Has Soared 25% Since Curaleaf First Made an Offer to Buy Its Business. Here's Why I Think It Can Go Even Higher

There's nothing quite like talk of an acquisition that can send a stock soaring quickly. Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB) stock has been flying recently, as it has benefited from the takeover attempt that Curaleaf Holdings (OTC:CURLF) launched a few months ago.

In August, Curaleaf announced plans for a hostile takeover of Aurora, after expressing frustration with efforts to pursue a deal privately. Curaleaf is a large multistate operator and one of the largest cannabis companies in the U.S. market, while Aurora is a Canadian-based cannabis company with a growing presence internationally, which is the key attraction for Curaleaf.

Recently, Curaleaf raised its offer for Aurora, in the hopes of swaying shareholders. As a result of the recent offers, Aurora's stock has taken off, rising by around 25% since Curaleaf first announced plans to make a bid. Can it still rise higher, and is now a good time to buy Aurora's stock?

Curaleaf raises offer to $5

Last week, Curaleaf announced it was going to raise the value of its offer for Aurora to $5. Previously, it had offered $4. Both offers are based on a mix of cash and stock.

Aurora released a press release, urging its shareholders not to take any action and that the company has a special committee which will thoroughly review the offer and provide shareholders with a formal recommendation. It also noted that shareholders won't have to make any decision until Dec. 4 or later, based on the offer's expiry date.

Previously, Aurora was adamant that the offer didn't reflect the company's value sufficiently. Now, however, the Board of Directors is taking the matter more seriously with a committee evaluating the bid.

There is the possibility that the offer ends up being rejected, at which point Curaleaf may raise its offer yet again, or perhaps walk away from the deal.

The last time Aurora's stock was trading at $5 or more was last December. But given the stock's 94% decline over the past five years, long-term investors may not be jumping at the chance to take the deal, particularly if they are hopeful of a better future ahead, with Aurora focusing on expanding into international cannabis markets.

Why I believe Aurora's stock will go higher before the end of the year

In recent years, Aurora has simplified its business and become less reliant on the Canadian cannabis market and instead focused its efforts internationally. It's still an unprofitable company, and there's a ton of risk here. But with Curaleaf showing a great deal of interest in the business, it's a good sign to investors that there are some quality assets in its portfolio. Curaleaf could have gone for Tilray Brands or Canopy Growth, but it opted for Aurora instead.

I don't think Aurora investors will rush to take the $5 offer simply because the stock is already fairly low with a market cap of around $280 million. Meanwhile, I think the international business is compelling enough for Curaleaf that it will continue to bid higher.

Investors, however, should tread carefully because if that doesn't happen and Curaleaf withdraws its offer, then Aurora's stock could quickly sink back down.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Tilray Brands. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.