Delays in deploying native 800V power supply for AI data centers raise concerns Damo: Market overreaction OCP summit is expected to catalyze semiconductor stocks

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley said in the latest research report released on October 12 that the market's previous expectations for the deployment progress of 800 volt DC power supply (800 VDC) technology for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers were too optimistic, but concerns about delays in the promotion of this technology have also been amplified recently. The bank believes that although the full adoption of the 800V power supply architecture for Nvidia (NVDA.US) next-generation AI server cabinets may be delayed until 2028, the overall direction of technological transformation has not changed. The Open Computing Project (OCP) Global Summit to be held on October 12-15 is expected to further clarify the development path of 800V technology and become an active catalyst for power management and simulation semiconductor-related stocks.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore pointed out in the report that since this year, the progress of commercialization of 800V power supply technology has been the focus of attention in the semiconductor industry. As the power consumption of AI servers continues to rise, traditional power supply architectures are facing more and more challenges. Using higher voltage DC power supply systems is seen as an important direction to improve data center power supply efficiency and meet future high-power computing needs.

However, the actual deployment of 800V technology may be slower than previously anticipated by the market.

According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, Nvidia originally planned to introduce native 800V power supply through the Kyber cabinet architecture in the Rubin Ultra series to be launched in the second half of 2027. However, Kyber is currently no longer the cabinet type that Rubin Ultra plans to use, and related plans are being adjusted.

According to Nvidia's latest technology roadmap, its third-generation server cabinet with a power of about 570 kilowatts still uses 54V DC power distribution. Morgan Stanley believes that this configuration is basically consistent with the previously anticipated Rubin Ultra cabinet specifications of about 600 kilowatts and 144 GPUs. This means that Nvidia's first server cabinet that clearly uses a native 800V power supply architecture will probably not appear until the subsequent Feynman architecture and product generation with a power of about 1 megawatt. The time is expected to be around 2028.

However, Morgan Stanley stressed that the delay in the deployment of native 800V cabinets does not mean that the entire transformation of 800V power supply technology has come to a standstill.

The bank pointed out that the 800V external power supply module (Sidecar) has begun to be shipped according to the original plan, and Nvidia's Power Center centralized power supply system, which Nvidia expects to launch in 2027, is still in progress. At the same time, related technologies such as power conversion, power supply management, and voltage regulation modules (VRM) are still expected to continue to develop as the power density of AI computing chips increases.

For power semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN), delays in deploying native 800V cabinets may delay the release of demand for some high-frequency DC converters. However, from an overall perspective, the promotion of the 800V power supply architecture is only a change in the pace of development in different areas, not a reversal in the direction of technology.

Notably, Morgan Stanley believes that the market's pessimism about 800V-related semiconductor stocks may have overreflected the impact of delays in technology deployment.

After the Nvidia GTC conference announced a more detailed 800V technology roadmap in March of this year, related semiconductor stocks were once sought after by investors. According to the data, the valuation ratio (EV/sales) valuation ratio (EV/sales) ratio (EV/sales) of 800V-related companies in the next 12 months increased by about 50% after the conference and reached a high point in mid-June. However, as news broke in the market that the deployment of 800V technology might be delayed, the valuation of related stocks declined markedly. Currently, the EV/sales valuation multiplier for the next 12 months in this sector has been reduced to about 6.5 times, basically returning to the level before the GTC conference in March this year.

Meanwhile, the valuation premium of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over 800V-related stocks has increased from about 12% to 25%, higher than the average of about 17% since April 2025.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that although related stock valuations have declined markedly, corporate fundamental expectations have not deteriorated at the same time. According to the data, since the GTC conference in March this year, the expected revenue growth rate of 800V-related companies in the next 12 months has increased from about 12% to 27% year-on-year. However, since the first reports of delays in technology deployment appeared, the market's revenue forecast for the next 12 months has increased by a cumulative total of about 11%, and no company's revenue forecast has been lowered.

The bank believes that this indicates that the adjustment of the 800V technology deployment time has not had a significant impact on the short-term fundamentals of related enterprises. The overall recovery of the analog semiconductor industry and continued strong demand for AI data centers are still supporting the growth prospects of enterprises.

The upcoming 2026 OCP Global Summit will be an important opportunity for the market to re-evaluate the prospects of 800V technology.

OCP is an open computing project involving large cloud computing companies, equipment manufacturers, and component suppliers to promote the development of next-generation data center infrastructure technology.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that with the rapid growth in power supply demand for AI servers, the OCP Global Summit has clearly increased issues related to power supplies and data center facilities in recent years.

According to the bank's statistics, the total number of technical meetings at the 2026 OCP Summit reached 364, up from 267 in 2024, an increase of more than 30%. Among them, the number of meetings related to power and data center facilities has nearly tripled compared to 2024, accounting for about 16% of the total technical agenda.

This year's summit will focus on issues such as 800V DC power supply, HVDC power distribution, cabinet power supply architecture, energy storage, and system safety. Technology companies such as Nvidia, Google (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Meta (META.US) will all participate in related technical discussions. Among them, Nvidia plans to introduce the progress of the 800V DC power supply architecture from coordination of technical standards to actual deployment, and Google, Microsoft, and Meta will also participate in issues related to server power supply requirements and technical standards.

Morgan Stanley believes that the market will focus on whether the 800V external power supply module continues to advance according to the plan, the 2027 Power Center system deployment schedule, and the specific launch date of the native 800V server cabinet.

Furthermore, Nvidia previously stated that more than 80 equipment manufacturers and infrastructure companies have participated in the construction of the 800V power supply technology ecosystem. Morgan Stanley believes that the increasing number of industry participants also shows that this technological transformation continues to advance.

In terms of investment opportunities, Morgan Stanley pointed out that if the OCP summit further confirms that the long-term development direction of 800V power supply technology has not changed, related semiconductor stocks may usher in a positive market reaction.

The bank specifically mentioned that companies such as Adeno Semiconductor (ADI.US), Texas Instruments (TXN.US), Onsemi (ON.US), Wolfspeed (WOLF.US), and Nano Micro Semiconductors (NVTS.US) are all expected to benefit from AI data center power management and increased demand for power semiconductors.

However, Morgan Stanley believes that the greater impact brought about by the transformation of 800V technology may be reflected in the utilization rate of mature semiconductor manufacturing capacity. The bank pointed out that at present, with the exception of the Chinese market and part of the production capacity of Texas Instruments, the capacity utilization rate of mature process fabs around the world is generally at a high level. As demand for analog chips in AI data centers continues to be strong, if 800V power supply technology further expands the demand for related chips, production capacity supply for mature processes may become tight in 2027.

Morgan Stanley said that it has now begun to anticipate that some mature semiconductor products may be in short supply next year, so it maintains a positive view on the analog semiconductor sector as a whole.