US Stock Forecast | Futures of the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, and the gas station reached $106, and the US stock earnings season kicked off with a bang this week

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on October 12 (Monday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.08%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.13%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.79%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.85%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.40%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.58%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 1.51% to $93.24 per barrel. Brent crude rose 1.34% to $106.12 per barrel.

Market news

US stock earnings season kicks off with a bang! The haze of war between the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine is at its peak, and the US CPI affects expectations of interest rate hikes. Can “AI faith” really overcome everything? The much-anticipated third-quarter earnings season for US stocks is about to begin in full. These Wall Street financial giants, including BlackRock and J.P. Morgan Chase, will be the first to disclose their results. At the same time, the US CPI inflation data for September to be released on Monday will directly affect the market's pricing trajectory of the Fed's interest rate hike and become an important judgment on whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in October. Meanwhile, the geopolitical tension between the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine continues to put pressure on them. This also means that the global stock market will be intensely tested at almost the same time by “the pace of profit cashout associated with AI computing power resources, financing costs under rising US bond yields, and energy inflation under continued geopolitical pressure.”

US bond yields remain high, and the market is waiting for CPI and Wash this week: betting on continuing to raise interest rates until December. After the Federal Reserve unanimously approved interest rate hikes last month, US bond yields jumped sharply; there was almost no change last week, hovering near a 24-year high. In the new week, investors are now waiting for two things: new data and suggestions from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh about how fast the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. The current position layout is increasing the risk: if the consumer price index (CPI) rises more than expected in September, it may reignite this round of sell-off because it will put the Federal Reserve under pressure to raise interest rates more aggressively. Walsh will participate in a discussion at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting to be held in Bangkok, Thailand on Thursday. Two other high-profile officials — Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak — will also speak.

Global bond market sell-off “raised interest rates for central banks”: yields soared above 4% to the highest level since 2000, and expectations for interest rate hikes in the eight major economies plummeted by nearly 200 basis points. The global bond market is driving up financing costs on its own and undertaking some of the austerity tasks for major central banks. This may reduce the number of benchmark interest rate increases required by central banks to suppress inflation. After weeks of sell-off, bond yields have soared to multi-year highs, and even if policymakers do not take further action, the financial environment has tightened significantly, causing some economic inhibition — an effect that the central bank is hoping to achieve by raising policy interest rates. According to compiled data, traders lowered their expectations for interest rate hikes; since mid-September, interest rate hikes set in interest rate swap contracts in the eight major economies have fallen by a cumulative total of nearly 200 basis points.

The “energy cease-fire” proposed by Trump could not contain the rise in oil prices, and the former J.P. Morgan strategist bluntly denounced “another scam.” Trump announced an “energy cease-fire” between Russia and Ukraine, focusing Wall Street analysts' latest differences on one key question: Can the diplomatic statement led by the US president be transformed into a real improvement in energy supply, thereby loosening the pressure on inflation and surging treasury bond yields on global technology asset valuations? Former J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic questioned the credibility of the cease-fire. Kolanovic expressed doubts about Trump's claim that the two countries have agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure, saying, “Everyone saw burning tankers, oil fields, and airports this weekend. This energy cease-fire looks like yet another scam”. However, Wall Street strategist Tom Lee, who has accurately predicted the market many times since 2025, stressed that if the energy cease-fire is implemented, it will help mitigate the continuing impact of high oil prices on consumers, the economy, and the stock market.

Bury, the “big bear,” turned to put options on the NASDAQ and semiconductor ETF, and warned that they would peak within 9 months. Investor Michael Berry, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis by accurately identifying major flaws in the US subprime mortgage market, has concentrated most of his bearish bets on the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) and Vaneck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). It is expected that the market may peak within the next nine months. Bury said in a recent Substack blog post posted last Sunday that he has converted most of his previous short positions into options, and currently put options on the NASDAQ 100 and Vaneck Semiconductor ETFs make up almost all of his short exposure. “I think we're in the 0 to 9 months before a major top comes out,” he said. He added that the last few months of the bull market are likely to fluctuate sharply as major stock indexes break to new highs.

Individual stock news

US stock storage stocks and optical communications stocks generally declined before the market. Before the US stock market on Monday, as of press release, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) fell more than 2%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Seagate (STX.US) fell nearly 2%, and Western Digital (WDC.US) fell more than 2%. In terms of optical communications stocks, Coherent (COHR.US) fell more than 2%, Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), and MRVL.US (MRVL.US) all fell nearly 2%, and Corning (GLW.US) fell more than 1%.

Q3 net profit may increase 65%! TSM.US (TSM.US) is on the verge of winning “six consecutive championships,” and the AI infrastructure feast is not over. Driven by a boom in infrastructure spending in the technology industry, TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced AI chips, is expected to announce a record profit for the sixth consecutive quarter. Analysts said that market demand for TSMC's AI chip manufacturing capacity and its advanced chip packaging technology CowOS is still strong. According to estimates from 16 analysts compiled by LSEG SmartTest, TSMC on Thursday announced that net profit for the third quarter surged 65% to NT$746.3 billion (US$23.4 billion). This estimate focuses more on analysts with stable forecast accuracy. If net profit exceeds NT$706.56 billion, TSMC's quarterly net profit will reach a record high and achieve the 11th consecutive quarterly profit increase. Last Thursday, TSMC announced a 50% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter, exceeding market expectations and reaching a record high.

Musk shows the “AI ambition” of the core and unmanned vehicle fleet: Terafab will test 10 chip designs a year, and Cybercab will expand 8 times a month and then point to Dallas. Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) CEO Elon Musk sent two messages in a row last weekend, with the same direction — taking back the most critical supply chain and most critical operational links into their own hands. At the X Takeover event at the Austin Gigafactory in Texas, he described Terafab's goal to more than 2,000 car owners and investors: to make and test about 10 chip designs a year; on the same day, Tesla's AI software's Ashok Elluswamy showed another line of progress on X — Austin's Cybercab fleet has surpassed 300 vehicles and expanded 8 times in 30 days. “Dallas is fast.” What the two lines have in common is that they are both questioned between “speed” and “certainty.” However, the market's response was lukewarm. As of press release, Tesla's US stocks rose only slightly by 0.07% before the market on Monday.

IREN (IREN.US) mystery customer surfaced? Anthropic is rumored to have signed a multi-year contract. “The Information” published an analysis report on the economics of Anthropic data center leasing, detailing how the AI lab is driving its cloud partners to accelerate the construction of new data centers. According to AI Weekly, citing the report, “People familiar with the matter revealed that Anthropic also has an unannounced multi-year cloud agreement with IREN.” In August of this year, IREN revealed that it had signed an agreement with a leading AI lab, but did not disclose the name of the customer. If Anthropic joins the customer list, it will significantly boost IREN and is expected to strengthen its position as an AI cloud infrastructure provider at a time when demand for computing power surges. As of press release, IREN's US stocks rose nearly 4% in the premarket on Monday.

Key economic data and event forecasts

At 00:10 Beijing time the next day, 2026 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak delivered a speech

Performance Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: J.P. Morgan (JPM.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Citibank (C.US), United Health (UNH.US)