Zheshang Securities: 2026Q4 ushered in an overseas computing power delivery acceleration window, suggestions to focus on the first volume phase

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that Nvidia VR200 will be delivered in small batches starting in 2026Q3, and Q4 is expected to enter the mass production and fulfillment cycle. Currently, downstream outsourced foundries and Tier 2 core component manufacturers have begun intensive capacity expansion. Q3 upstream parts companies are expected to take the lead in batch orders, release reported profits, and select the target with high order certainty and the earliest visible liquid cooling performance. 2026Q4 ushered in an acceleration window for overseas computing power delivery. The Nvidia VR200 is expected to enter a large-scale mass production climbing cycle. Starting in Q4, the liquid cooling industry chain performance will be concentrated on implementation. It is recommended to focus on the first scaling process.

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

The jump in chip power density is compounded by PUE constraints, and liquid cooling is just what AI data centers need for cooling

Currently, the TDP (thermal design power consumption) of AI chips has jumped exponentially, and the TDP of the entire cabinet has broken through the limit of air cooling solutions (40kW). At the same time, many countries have issued PUE policies requiring the construction and renovation of large/very large data centers with PUE ≤ 1.25, and the introduction of liquid cooling with PUE ≤ 1.25 in AI data centers has become an immediate requirement for heat dissipation. In the liquid cooling technology route, contactless cold plate liquid cooling solutions are currently mainstream.

Upstream components are the core profit link of the liquid cooling industry chain, with an average gross margin of 25%-30%. Among them, UQD, CDU, stainless steel bellows, etc. have high gross margins of 40%-60% due to high technology/customer certification barriers.

Nvidia and Google are the current two core chains in the liquid cooling industry chain. Domestic suppliers are expected to break through with Taiwanese, European and American suppliers in the following directions

1) Nvidia Chain: Obtain Nvidia AVL/RVL certification, directly supply ODM/OEM companies, or take the lead in entering the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions or OEM, and gradually increase its share.

2) Google Chain: Direct cooperation with Google CSP companies to enter the ASIC cabinet liquid cooling supply chain.

Key recommendations

Jinfu Technology, Wuyang Automatic, the core suppliers of stainless steel bellows have achieved rapid results; it is recommended to focus on: 1) Secondary tier 1 targets: Invec, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Shenling Environment, Tongfei Co., Ltd.; 2) Primary side targets: ice wheel environment; 3) electronic pumps: Feilong Co., Ltd., Dayuan Pump; 4) Optical module liquid cooling cage: Dingtong Technology, Yidong Electronics, Dari Electronics, etc.

Risk warning: Risk that AI capital expenses of global cloud vendors fall short of expectations, risk of delays in mass production and delivery of AI servers and ASIC computing power platforms, and risk of major changes in technology routes in the liquid cooling industry.