CITIC Securities: Electricity supply has become one of the core bottlenecks in the construction of AI data centers in the US

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the current power supply has become one of the core bottlenecks in the construction of AI data centers in the US. According to Aterio, the data center currently under construction in the US has a capacity of 71.7 GW, while the new capacity of the power grid is expected to be only 25.2 GW in 2027-2028. According to the bank's judgment, the current boom in the US power industry lies in the contradiction between the high return on investment in data centers and scarce power supply resources: investment in the power system is relatively limited, but early power-up can speed up the return of capital; according to the bank's estimates, if the capacity utilization rate increases from 50% to 75% in the first year, the project ROIC can rise from 16.5% to 19.8%, providing an economic foundation for customers to purchase efficient power supply solutions. Considering the long power grid expansion cycle and the difficulty of fully off-grid operation, the bank expects that grid transformation and post-meter power generation will advance in parallel, mixed power supply will gradually become mainstream, and the power grid equipment, power transmission and transformation EPC, and post-grid power generation industry chains are expected to benefit together.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Electricity supply has become a core bottleneck in the construction of AI data centers in the US, and capital expenditure on computing power infrastructure is spreading to the power supply industry chain.

According to Aterio's official website, as of the beginning of September 2026, the US already has a data center capacity of 52.4 GW, and the capacity under construction has reached 71.7 GW; according to SemiAnalysis, the new capacity of the US power grid is estimated to be only 25.2 GW in 2027-2028, which is only 35% of the current capacity under construction, and the corresponding gap is about 46.5 GW. As the scale of the single data center increases to the GW level, the project's requirements for power supply capacity, reliability, and delivery speed are increasing simultaneously, but the power grid planning, equipment production, and engineering construction cycle are all significantly longer than the data center construction cycle. The bank believes that data center construction restrictions have shifted from server and GPU supply to electricity access. North America will simultaneously promote transmission and distribution grid transformation, cross-regional power transmission, and post-park power generation construction, and power equipment and engineering services are expected to become an important incremental direction for AI infrastructure investment.

Demand side: time is money, efficiency is life.

Based on the requirements of the Uptime Institute's official website for Tier IV data centers, according to Tom's Hardware, alpha-Matica's official website, and Nvidia, ETN, WDC, GEV and other company announcements and official websites, the bank estimates that the total capital expenditure of 1GW AI data centers is about 499 billion US dollars, of which the main power supply, backup power supply and power grid system together account for about 17%; annual operating costs are about 8.4 billion US dollars, and electricity costs account for about 8%. Investment in the power system is relatively limited, but the power supply time determines when the computing power production capacity is put into operation. Under the assumption of the rental price and utilization rate set in the report, the annual revenue after the project is completed can reach US$18.9 billion, and the ROIC for the entire life cycle is about 16.5%. If the power supply plan pushes the project to go online 3 months ahead of schedule, the corresponding additional revenue is about 4.7 billion US dollars, which is close to the capital expenditure scale of the main power system; if the capacity utilization rate increases from 50% to 75% in the first year, the project ROIC can rise to 19.8%, an increase of 3.3 ppts. The bank believes that data center customers are more willing to pay to shorten grid-connection and power-up cycles, and that transformers, switchgear, fuel cells and engineering services that can be delivered faster are expected to benefit.

Supply side: The speed of grid expansion is difficult to match data center construction needs, and the industry has entered the hybrid power supply stage.

According to SemiAnalysis, in 2027, the US data center will require about 39 GW of additional capacity, and the available capacity of the power grid will be only 24.1 GW, and about 14.8 GW will need to be covered by post-meter power generation; in 2028, the demand will rise to 54 GW, and the new grid supply will only be about 11.1 GW, and the post-meter power supply gap will further expand to about 42.6 GW. On the power grid side, Wood Mackenzie expects the gaps in power transformers and substation equipment to be about 15% and 8% respectively in 2026; ETN revealed that the transformer delivery period was close to 2 years, and transmission and transformation construction was also constrained by insufficient skilled workers. On the park side, fuel cells, aviation combustion, and reciprocating combustion engines can help the project to power up first. GEV aviation to combustion shipments in the first half of 2026 are close to the full year of 2025. However, being completely off the grid still needs to solve the problems of redundant power supply, load fluctuations, and long-term operation and maintenance. The bank believes that hybrid power supply combining the front and back of the meter is more feasible, and that the power grid equipment, power transmission and transformation EPC, and post-meter power generation industry chains are expected to benefit together.

Grid expansion: The speed of grid expansion is difficult to match data center construction needs, and equipment and construction bottlenecks drive the simultaneous development of post-meter power generation.

On the equipment side, the ETN transformer delivery cycle was close to 2 years, then extended again in 2026Q2. On the construction side, power transmission and transformation projects are constrained by insufficient electricians and skilled technicians, and the training period for mature technicians is about 4 years. Supply constraints have gradually been reflected in corporate orders: 2026Q2 ETN's North American electric business's on-hand orders reached US$15.2 billion (+33% YoY), GEV 2026Q2 electrification business data center orders exceeded US$5 billion, and PWR 2026Q2 electricity infrastructure operations reached US$43.79 billion. The bank believes that the accumulation of orders provided strong support for subsequent revenue growth in the grid equipment and grid EPC industry.

Backstage power generation: fuel cells, aviation combustion conversion, and accelerated landing of reciprocating combustion engines.

Fuel cells have the advantages of modularity, high efficiency, and rapid deployment; aviation combustion engines can reach tens of megawatts of power and can be installed and commissioned within about 1 month as fast as 1 month; natural gas reciprocating combustion engines have rapid response and multi-engine parallel connection capabilities, which can match AI load fluctuations and park expansion over time. On the demand side, the agreement between Bloom Energy and Oracle supports a procurement scale of up to 2.8 GW; 70 new GEV 2026H1 aircraft fuel conversion orders (+94% year over year); FTAI and Jerry's joint venture obtained the first batch of orders of US$1,465 billion; and CAT also received an initial 2GW unit order for the Monarch Park. On the supply side, Bloom Energy plans to increase the production capacity of the existing plant to 2 GW by the end of 2026, and CAT will raise the production capacity target for large reciprocating engines to nearly 3 times that of 2024 to provide support for subsequent deliveries. Considering that completely off-grid still faces difficulties such as redundant configuration, load management, and long-term operation and maintenance, the bank anticipates that hybrid power supply combining power grids and park power will become mainstream.

risk factors

AI data center construction progress falls short of expectations; risk of gas turbine capacity expansion falling short of expectations; risk of fuel cell production capacity expansion falling short of expectations; risk of power grid construction falling short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in fuel prices such as natural gas; risk of increased industry competition; risk of changes in nuclear power policies exceeding expectations; downside risk of corporate electricity expenditure exceeding expectations due to a decline in global macroeconomic growth, etc.

Investment advice

Currently, AI data centers have a high return on investment, but the project ROIC is highly sensitive to the commissioning time and capacity utilization rate in the first year. The bank estimates that the current ROIC for the entire life cycle of AI data centers is about 15% to 20%; if the capacity utilization rate increases from 50% to 75% in the first year, the project ROIC can increase from 16.5% to 19.8%; for 1GW AI data centers, if the project is put into operation 3 months ahead of schedule, the new repayment can basically cover the capital expenses of the main power system. Since it is difficult for the US grid expansion and grid connection cycle to match data center construction requirements, the bank believes that post-meter power generation is not only a temporary solution to the power gap, but also an important means of improving the ROIC of data center projects. At the same time, since it is still necessary to solve the problems of power supply redundancy, load fluctuations, and long-term operation and maintenance, the bank believes that hybrid power supply combining front and back of the table is more feasible, and the power grid equipment, power transmission and transformation EPC, and post-table power generation industry chains are expected to benefit together. The power generation direction after the table suggests focusing on companies related to fuel cells, aviation combustion conversion, and reciprocating combustion engines; in the direction of power grid capacity expansion, it is recommended to focus on transformers and grid EPC-related companies.