Zhongtai Securities 26Q3 Food and Drink Preview: Liquor accelerates the establishment of new snack channels and healthy resonance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that the 2026 Q3 liquor industry showed significant structural differentiation. The overall industry bottomed out at an accelerated pace, the soft drink market was under pressure, and internal category differentiation was obvious. Liquor consumption has returned to rationality, and consumers' willingness to stock up has weakened, and the pay-as-you-go market performance showed a dumbbell pattern during the peak season. The overall performance of high-end wine was superior. The sub-high-end sector was under pressure, and real estate wine relied on banquets and homecoming scenarios to achieve structural restoration. The trend of healthy snacks continues, demand for offline snacks is under overall pressure, roasted nut categories continue to be resilient, heavy flavors, high in oil and salt categories have dropped significantly, and passenger traffic in traditional supermarkets continues to migrate to emerging channels such as vector snacks.

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Liquor sector: Sales performance is divided, and high-end wine is performing well. In 2026, the Q3 liquor industry showed significant structural differentiation. The industry as a whole accelerated bottoming out, the soft drink market was under pressure, and internal category differentiation was obvious. Liquor consumption has returned to rationality, and consumers' willingness to stock up has weakened, and the pay-as-you-go market performance showed a dumbbell pattern during the peak season. The overall performance of high-end wine was superior. The sub-high-end sector was under pressure, and real estate wine relied on banquets and homecoming scenarios to achieve structural restoration. The high-end wine sector has been segmented within the high-end wine sector. Maotai's wholesale sales have remained steady, the share of drinkable consumption has increased, and Maotai's direct sales channels have continued to be empowered; Wuliangliquid's price control and regulation and marketing have led to a recovery in general five batch prices, and double sales have achieved double-digit growth; Luzhou Laojiao has implemented a price control strategy, and early payment of subsidies drives channel repayment. The sub-high-end sector is under pressure as a whole. Sales at Fenjiu Shuangjie terminals in Shanxi declined. The province mainly maintained market share, and repayment performance was better than sales; the overall operation of the Shede Liquor Industry was under pressure, and the general wine sector achieved double-digit growth with the Tuopai T68, but the sub-high-end business dragged down the whole. Real estate wine benefits from dinner reimbursement and consumption at the hometown. Today, the price of 300 yuan in Shiyuan Province is highly competitive, and demand for banquets supports sales; as Gongjiu seizes the return of mass consumption opportunities, the performance of the popular banquet scene is improving.

Soft drinks: Unsweetened tea continues to increase, and the overall performance of beverages is under pressure. Sales of major beverage categories were year-on-year in May-August — 13.67%. Juices, soft drinks, and energy drinks generally weakened. Unsweetened ready-to-drink tea alone maintained a high growth rate of about 10%. Sugary tea drinks declined significantly, and industry share was concentrated in the leading position. Dongpeng Drinks were disrupted by typhoons and floods in the core consumption area. Energy drinks were under pressure, and rehydration and tea drinks performed steadily. Quanyangquan is promoting the divestment of the park's garden assets. The main sales area in Northeast China was not disturbed by extreme weather, and sales targets are high during the peak season.

Snacks: Health trends continue, and traditional offline channels are weak. The overall demand for offline snacks is under pressure. Roasted nut categories continue to be resilient, heavy in flavor, high in oil and salt categories have dropped significantly, and passenger traffic in traditional supermarkets continues to migrate to emerging channels such as vector snacks. Online marketing points focus on healthy attributes such as high protein, zero trans fatty acids, and non-frying, and demand for health continues to penetrate. The overall stock price of the sector has recovered, and leading volume sellers have taken the lead. On the performance side, the pace of mass snack sales is steady, the scale effect of the Wanchen Group continues to unleash, and revenue and profits are expected to continue to grow rapidly. Negotiate food benefits from volume sales channel expansion and melon seed cost dividends, and profit flexibility is high. The restructuring of the Yanjin store channel is compounded by rising costs of cod and packaging materials, and short-term profits may be under pressure. Jinzai food sales channels continued to increase rapidly, and anchovy prices rose and new factories climbed a slope or suppressed profit release.

Risk warning: Terminal demand recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, price increases fall short of expectations, fluctuating raw material prices, food safety risks, and risks of untimely updates to research information.