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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Could Be 70% Undervalued After TELUS Satellite Network Test

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

TELUS and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) just completed their first integration test linking terrestrial and space-based networks, a practical step toward direct smartphone to satellite connectivity for Canadian users in areas without traditional coverage.

Astro-telecom headlines have not translated into steady gains for AST SpaceMobile. The share price is down 10.48% over the past day and 38.94% year to date, yet the three year total shareholder return of about 16x shows how volatile sentiment around spectrum deals, competitive moves from SpaceX, and new carrier trials has been.

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AST SpaceMobile has already delivered a spectacular three year run, yet the recent selloff and fresh TELUS progress leave a different kind of question on the table. Is most of the payoff already behind the stock, or does the current valuation still point to meaningful upside ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 70% Undervalued

AST SpaceMobile last closed at $50.97 while the most followed narrative on the stock pegs fair value at $170. That gap frames the TELUS test and recent volatility as part of a much bigger question about execution, capital and how quickly direct to device revenue can build.

The bull case is that AST is transitioning from technology demonstration to commercial rollout. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $14.7 million, reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150 to $200 million, and expects revenue to build sequentially through the year from gateway sales, government work, consulting, and potentially initial commercial service revenue. Management is also targeting around 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026, which would be the first real step toward broader service continuity.

See why 92 investors see AST SpaceMobile as 70% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the AST SpaceMobile story can be knocked off course if satellite deployment slips or if big carrier partners take longer to translate trials into real revenue.

Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.

Another View On AST SpaceMobile’s Valuation

The DCF-driven narrative pegs AST SpaceMobile at $170, yet the market is assigning a very different message through the balance sheet multiple. The stock trades on a P/B of 8.1x versus 1.6x for the wider US Telecom group and 13.5x for closer peers, which points to a lot of expectation already in the price. Is that premium a cushion or a cliff if execution wobbles?

For a closer look at how that rich P/B ratio lines up against both the sector and similar businesses, and what it could mean for valuation risk, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

NasdaqGS:ASTS P/B Ratio as at Oct 2026
NasdaqGS:ASTS P/B Ratio as at Oct 2026

Next Steps

Mixed signals like this rarely last. If you want an independent take on AST SpaceMobile, consider both the potential benefits and the potential risks yourself with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond AST SpaceMobile?

AST SpaceMobile might be front of mind after the TELUS progress, but the next opportunity on your list could come from a very different corner of the market.

Use the Simply Wall St Screener to hunt for fresh ideas before they move, with curated sets that focus on quality, resilience, and targeted upside.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.