Overnight US stocks | Trump says Russia agreed to supply diesel to ease fuel price pressure, three major indices closed higher this week Moderna (MRNA.US) rose more than 14%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Friday, the three major indices rose. Trump said Russia has agreed to supply diesel to the US and global markets to ease pressure on fuel prices. According to its announced arrangement, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, and supply will increase in the future. Related news improved investors' expectations for energy supply and pushed US stocks higher. However, the pressure on the market has not disappeared. Oil prices continued to hover high, and US Treasury yields rose again after falling back on Thursday. This week, the S&P 500 index cumulatively rose about 1.2%, the Dow rose about 0.9%, and the NASDAQ rose about 0.6%.

[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones index rose 423.31 points, or 0.83%, to 51654.95 points; the S&P 500 rose 46.15 points, or 0.59%, to 7811.51 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 172.83 points, or 0.64%, to 27366.17 points. Moderna (MRNA.US) was up 14.21%, Oracle (ORCL.US) was up 4.69%, Amazon (AMZN.US) was up 3.29%, Microsoft (MSFT.US) was 2.38%, Tesla (TSLA.US) was 2.05%, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) was up 1.25%.

[European stocks] The German DAX30 index rose 280.85 points, or 1.13%, to 25087.82 points; the British FTSE 100 index rose 107.99 points, or 1.03%, to 10549.59 points; the French CAC40 index rose 73.64 points, or 0.95%, to 7803.33 points; the European Stoxx 50 index rose 47.42 points, or 0.77%, to 6174.15 points; Spain's IBEX35 index rose 125.20 points, or 0.66%, It was reported at 19054.10 points; Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 441.62 points, or 0.90%, to 49739.50 points.

[Asia Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 Index fell slightly, and the Indonesian Composite Index rose 1.04%.

[Foreign Exchange] The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against the six major currencies, rose 0.08% on the same day and closed at 102.216 at the end of the foreign exchange market. As of the end of the exchange market in New York, 1 euro was worth 1.1202 US dollars, lower than 1.1209 US dollars on the previous trading day; 1 pound was worth 1.3241 US dollars, up from 1.3225 US dollars on the previous trading day. 1 US dollar was worth 158.21 yen, up from 157.86 yen on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 0.8298 Swiss franc, lower than 0.8316 Swiss franc on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 1.4266 Canadian dollars, higher than 1.4224 Canadian dollars on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 9.9909 SEK, up from 9.9757 on the previous trading day.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin once broke through the $83,000 mark. As of press time, it reported $8,2404; Ethereum rose 0.21% to $2,479.

[Precious Metals] Spot gold reported 4195.12 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.75% to 60.816 US dollars/ounce.

[Crude oil] Light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 36 cents, or 0.39%, to close at $91.85 a barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 44 cents, or 0.42%, to close at $104.72 a barrel.

[Macro News]

Consumer confidence in the US fell to 46.3 in October, and the current economic situation index hit a record low. Inflation expectations are heating up again. Consumer confidence in the US declined further in early October. Consumer evaluations of the current economic situation fell to the lowest level in history. Continued high inflation is increasing the financial pressure on American households. According to a preliminary survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the consumer confidence index fell to 46.3 in October, the lowest level since May. Among them, the current economic condition index fell sharply to 44.7 from 50.9 in September, the lowest level since the record was set. Meanwhile, the consumer expectations index rose from 46.3 to 47.3, the first increase since July. As gasoline prices remain high, borrowing costs rise, and recruitment activity slows, American consumer confidence continues to deteriorate. According to the survey, consumers expect prices to rise 4.7% in the next year, up from 4.6% in September. Long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years have risen to an average annual average of 3.5%, slightly higher than the September level. Joanne Hsu, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said in a statement that the confidence index of low-income consumers and consumers with smaller stock portfolios declined markedly this month.

Federal Reserve Survey: Nearly 20% of American households experienced overdue loans and debt repayment pressure rising to the highest level since 2013. According to the Federal Reserve's latest consumer finance survey, the pressure on US household debt is increasing, and more and more borrowers have overdue loans or need to use a larger percentage of their income to repay their debts. According to the survey, the median household debt service income ratio in the US rose to 15.4%, up 2 percentage points from 2022. The Federal Reserve indicated that this may be related to the rise in interest rates on home mortgages and consumer loans during the same period. Meanwhile, the proportion of households with heavy debt repayment burdens rose from 6.5% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2025, reaching the highest level since the 2013 survey. Debt payments for such households amount to 40 per cent or more of income. More notably, from 2022 to 2025, the proportion of households reporting overdue loans rose sharply from about 12% to nearly 20%. These data show that as borrowing costs rise, not only do American households need to use more income to repay their debts, but the phenomenon of overdue loans has also increased markedly, reflecting the worsening financial situation of some households.

Putin: Russia is willing to supply oil and petroleum products to the US and global markets. The Russian Kremlin issued a statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 9th local time, saying that during a phone call with US President Donald Trump that day, the two sides focused on the prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, and also covered various aspects of the situation in Iran and bilateral relations. While discussing the global energy market situation, Russia reiterated its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US and global markets. Putin stressed that this will have a positive impact on the global economy. The two sides confirmed that the two presidents will continue to maintain direct contact and continue to cooperate through the presidential office, intelligence and security services, and other government agencies. Furthermore, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak also said that Russia is willing to increase the supply of diesel to the US market in October. He also said that diesel exports may increase in November and December as the refinery finishes overhauling.

Trump pressured Mexico to reach an energy deal and US-Mexico trade negotiations were blocked. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, during a conversation with Mexican President Simbaum in mid-September, Trump asked Mexican companies to reach more deals and cooperation agreements with US energy companies. People familiar with the matter said that Trump initially inquired about the possibility of Mexico selling assets to the US, and the two sides also discussed arrangements similar to the US-South Korea energy agreement, including increasing purchases of US energy products. A US official said that the two sides discussed increasing Mexico's imports of US natural gas to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Currently, US gas accounts for about three-quarters of Mexico's gas demand. The report pointed out that the new requirements for energy cooperation have raised concerns on the Mexican side and caused the official trade negotiations originally scheduled to be held in September to be postponed, but have not yet been rescheduled. Mexico is seeking to reduce tariffs imposed by the US on its automobiles, steel, and aluminum products, but national control of the energy sector is highly politically sensitive in Mexico. The US side, on the other hand, said that negotiations between the two sides are progressing positively and are still maintaining close ties.

Russia's inflation in September was higher than target. Economists warned that interest rates might be raised again. Consumer prices in Russia rose 6.35% year on year in September, higher than market expectations of 6.3% and 0.35% month-on-month. Inflation continued to be higher than the central bank's target of 4%. Although seasonal price cuts for fruits and vegetables dampened part of the increase, the weekly price increase jumped from 0.12% to 0.96% after the regulated prices of utilities were raised this month. The chief economist of CentroCredit Bank said that it was previously expected that the Bank of Russia would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14% until the end of the year, but now it is possible to raise interest rates again. The Bank of Russia will discuss interest rates on October 23. Interest rate cuts were suspended last month for the first time since June 2025 due to the risk of inflation caused by disruptions in fuel supply and increased government spending. The central bank has previously raised the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 6% to 7%, which means that inflation will be higher than the target for the seventh year in a row. Furthermore, Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries to disrupt the fuel market, and the fiscal deficit is expected to double the original plan, further increasing the pressure on prices.

Global banks' precious metals trading revenue is expected to reach a record $5 billion this year. According to data from people familiar with the matter and Crisil Coalition Greenwich, due to sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices and active investor trading, global banks' precious metals trading revenue is expected to reach about 5 billion US dollars in 2026, a record high. Among them, J.P. Morgan Chase received about 700 million US dollars in revenue from precious metals trading and related businesses such as gold and silver in the first half of the year, close to its highest level of over 1 billion US dollars in 2020; Deutsche Bank's related revenue has exceeded 200 million US dollars since this year. Banks profit from short-term options, leveraged ETF transactions, and gold price arbitrage between different markets. At the same time, Citi became the first bank to join the London Gold Market treasury and clearing services this year. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley are also seeking to enter this field. Although the price of gold and silver has fallen from the high level at the beginning of the year, it has now more than doubled since the beginning of 2024.

Canada's employment plummeted by 683,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, all of which was offset by employment growth during the year. As the trade war with the US continues to weigh on the economy, Canada's employment fell by 68,300 in September, far exceeding market expectations, but also offset all of the employment growth previously accumulated since this year. According to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in September from 6.4% in August. The current decline in employment is mainly due to the public sector, where the number of employed people dropped by 70,000. Among them, the education services sector saw the biggest decline, with a decrease of 353,000 people; the health care and social assistance sector decreased by 23,300 people. Meanwhile, the number of people employed in the manufacturing industry fell by 12,700. Although job losses in September were mainly concentrated in the public sector, cumulative employment changes since this year indicate that the overall performance of the Canadian labor market is weak. Since December 2025, the total number of employed people in Canada has decreased by 41,000, compared to a total of 110,000 in the past two months. The report released on Friday also showed that Canada's labor participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 64.8% in September, the lowest level since December 1997 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). Statistics Canada said that the decline in labor participation rates can be largely attributed to an aging population.

[Individual Stock News]

J.P. Morgan: SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s latest spectrum deal may increase competition in the US telecommunications industry, and the three major operators are facing cost pressure. J.P. Morgan analysts said in a report that SpaceX's latest spectrum deal may once again raise market concerns about increased competition among the three major US wireless communication operators. Analysts pointed out that in addition to SpaceX becoming a new wireless communications market participant and even becoming the fourth largest operator in the US, the deal also increases the risk that existing major operators will have to invest more money in future spectrum auctions. However, J.P. Morgan believes that the competitive threat posed by SpaceX to the three existing operators Verizon (VZ.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US), and AT&T (T.US) is still limited in the short term. Analysts explained that building a competitive terrestrial mobile communication network requires significant time, infrastructure, and capital investment, so even if SpaceX obtains more spectrum resources, it will be difficult for SpaceX to have a substantial impact on the current market pattern in the short term.

Tesla abandons the “autonomous driving” name to seek European regulatory approval. Tesla (TSLA.US) is downplaying the name Full Self-Driving (fully automated assisted driving) in order to get approval for its driver assistance system in Europe and distance itself from the name that has long been criticized as misleading. In recent days, Tesla has begun using the name “Tesla Assisted Driving (Tesla Assisted Driving)” on European websites. At the same time, its US website still refers to this technology as “Full Self-Driving (Supervised),” or “fully automated assisted driving (subject to driver supervision).”

The five major Wall Street banks are expected to earn close to $19 billion in Q3 stock trading revenue. According to media reports, Wall Street's largest banks are expected to disclose a total stock trading revenue of close to 19 billion US dollars for the third quarter when announcing earnings reports next week. However, as capital market activity begins to cool down, performance gaps between banks are gradually becoming apparent, and the performance of some banks is beginning to clearly outperform their competitors. This is in stark contrast to the situation in the first half of this year. At the time, almost all five major banks in the US benefited from the boom in trading, and the stock and fixed income trading departments remained busy. Analysts compiled by the close of the New York market on Thursday forecast that Goldman Sachs Group (GS.US), which will release financial reports next Tuesday, is expected to rank first among major banks with third-quarter stock trading revenue of 5.1 billion US dollars. Morgan Stanley (MS.US) is expected to follow with stock trading revenue of $4.9 billion; JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) is expected to reach $4.5 billion; and Bank of America (BAC.US) stock trading division is expected to achieve revenue of $2.6 billion.

[Major Bank Ratings]

Societe Generale Bank: Lowers Tesla (TSLA.US) target price from $268 to $266

Barclays: Giving Boeing (BA.US) an overrated rating, the target price is $300

Bank of Montreal: Launched a coverage study on American Express (AXP.US) to give it an outperforming market rating; target price of $380

Citi: Lowers PEP.US (PEP.US) target price from $142 to $135

Barclays: Launch coverage study for SpaceX (SPCX.US) and give it an overrated rating; target price is $254