319 Cybercabs become a new battleground: Tesla (TSLA.US) valuation game changes racetrack, driverless fleet data becomes a new standard for Wall Street

The Zhitong Finance App notes that the Texas Motor Vehicle Administration (DMV) records show that Tesla (TSLA.US) registered 150 new Cybercab (driverless taxis) in a single day on October 8. The total number rose from 169 to 319, the biggest single-day increase since the model entered the registration system on August 31; adding 420 modified Model Ys, Tesla's autonomous vehicle fleet in Texas has expanded to about 739 vehicles.

Tesla rose nearly 1% overnight after the news was announced. The third-quarter delivery volume previously announced by Tesla was better than expected. It drove the stock price up nearly 5% in a single day, but the delivery volume still fell about 2% year over year; as of the beginning of October, the stock was still down about 18% during the year, which was the only target of negative earnings during the year among the “Big Seven Tech.”

Against the backdrop of pressure on the core automobile business, the marginal impact of Robotaxi's expansion data on stock prices has greatly amplified. Wall Street is clearly divided over this surge in registration volume. The target price ranged from $24.86 to $600, and the difference between the highest and lowest was over 23 times. The dispersion is rare among large-cap stocks, reflecting that the market still has not reached a consensus on the fundamental question of “whether Tesla is a car company or an AI platform”, and Cybercab fleet data is the answer they are looking for.

Bulls: Fleet size is a switch for revaluation

Tigress Financial reaffirmed its “buy” rating on October 8. The target price is 550 US dollars, implying about 47% upward space compared to the current stock price, which is one of the highest target prices in the past three months. The agency listed Cybercab autonomous taxis as one of the top five growth drivers, and believes that it collaborates with FSD subscription, Optimus robotics, energy business, and SpaceX to form a “physical AI growth flywheel” to support Tesla's “accelerated growth and long-term shareholder value creation.”

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives is more aggressive, with a target price of $600, the highest on Wall Street. He believes that the autonomous driving and AI business is worth “at least” 1 trillion US dollars, and Tesla's market value is expected to reach 2 trillion or even 3 trillion US dollars within a year or two.

Furthermore, Tom Narayan of RBC Capital Markets reiterated a “buy” with a target price of $480 on October 2; Stifel maintained a “buy” target price of $491; Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald both maintained an “increase” position; and Deutsche Bank maintained a “buy” with a target price of $420. Bulls generally regard Robotaxi as Tesla's core driver for switching from “car company valuation” to “platform valuation.”

The wait-and-see camp: Approving the direction, but demanding more evidence to implement

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintains a “neutral” rating with a target price of $400. The bank's framework is quite representative: the continued expansion of the unsupervised vehicle fleet is the core KPI for tracking Tesla's autonomous driving business in the second half of the year. Large-scale deployment rather than “a few vehicles” on the road is the switch that triggers valuation repricing; in its segment valuation, the Robotaxi business contributed $120 per share, making it the second largest source of value after network services ($144). The bank expects the Tesla Robotaxi fleet to expand to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 and reach 1 million vehicles by 2035. According to this framework, the pace of registration of 150 vehicles in a single day is the “large-scale evidence” required by Damo, but the bank still chose to wait and see the degree of implementation.

Other neutral institutions include: J.P. Morgan Chase Rajat Gupta, which lowered the target price from $445 to $415 on September 28; UBS Joseph Spak remained “neutral” and raised the target price to $385 on October 7; Barclays Dan Levy maintained “holding” with a target price of $370; Goldman Sachs Mark Delaney maintained “holding” and a target price of $360. The bank indicated in mid-September that Tesla's delivery volume for the third quarter might fall short of the market's unanimous expectations.

It is worth noting that recent rating action shows a pattern of “many companies stand still and neutral agencies fine-tune target prices”. Since the end of September, no agency has directly raised ratings due to Cybercab data.

Empty side: registration volume is not equal to actual capacity

Gordon Johnson, a prudent representative of GLJ Research, maintains a “sell” rating. The target price is only $24.86, the lowest on Wall Street. There are three kinds of empty logic: first, registration is not equal to operation; Tesla has never disclosed how many of them are actually operated without safety personnel; second, there is a huge gap with Waymo. The latter has entered 15 markets, launched more than 4,000 vehicles, and carried more than 500,000 paid passengers every week. 1,154 vehicles were registered in Texas alone. Tesla's 319 Cybercabs are still “zero.”

Overhang the big bar

NHTSA has upgraded the CyberCab safety certification review to a special order requiring Tesla to respond to 21 questions in the form of an oath by October 30, including how the pedalless design complies with foot braking standards. There are also mixed reviews on the passenger side. Complaints such as waiting for the bus for more than 45 minutes, incorrect pick-up points, and Gull Wing Gate failure are common on social platforms.

Fundamentally, Tesla's operating profit for the second quarter fell 57% year on year, and Robotaxi has become a key pillar supporting the valuation narrative, which also means that any expansion that falls short of expectations will be interpreted in amplification.