UBP sees emerging market debt opportunity set widen across hard-currency, local and frontier bonds

• Union Bancaire Privée flagged five distinct return drivers in emerging market debt, urging investors to price credit, rates, currency, liquidity, country risks.
• IMF Fiscal Monitor estimates 2025 government debt at about 108% of GDP in advanced economies versus 75% in emerging markets.
• Hard-currency emerging market debt offers income, though tighter spreads shift returns toward carry, rate management, issuer selection.
• Local-currency debt adds domestic rates, FX exposure; weaker US dollar could support returns, while currency swings can offset yields.
• JPMorgan cut its 2026 global emerging market high-yield default forecast to 3.1% from 4.3%, supporting the corporate credit outlook.

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