Citigroup: Optimistic about international aviation demand during the National Day holiday, Cathay Pacific is preferred (00293)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citi released a research report saying that according to data from China's Ministry of Transport, the average daily airline passenger traffic during the National Day holiday was roughly the same, with an increase of about 1%. Compared with that, railway passenger traffic increased by 12.7% year on year. The bank believes that the weak increase in air passenger traffic may reflect that travel demand was overdrawn ahead of schedule, because travelers only need to take three days of annual leave to combine the Mid-Autumn Festival with the National Day for 13 days.

The bank indicated that outbound demand provided a more positive signal. The number of mainland residents leaving the country reached 4.44 million during the National Day, an increase of 9.3% over the previous year, which is in line with the bank's judgment that international demand is greater than domestic demand. The bank expects domestic and international passenger kilometer revenue (RPK) to increase by 2% and 13%, respectively, in 2026.

Citigroup's preferences for aviation stocks are Cathay Pacific (00293), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Air China (00753), and China Southern Airlines (01055), in order of preference, Cathay Pacific.